Bear Raids 2.0

July 2, 2014 11:46 PM


Two weeks ago, I received a spam email from Prescience Point Research, asking me to click a link (LINK TO THESIS) and see a short selling thesis on Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI: USA). I read about a third of the report, found the allegations regarding CBI to be intriguing but quickly lost interest. I have no position in the stock, don’t short stocks and spend my analytical time on smaller companies. I printed out the report and added it to the pile of stuff that I will probably never read.... more

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The Era Of Cheap Oil Is Over

June 10, 2014 6:10 AM


The greatest honor in the blogosphere is to be quoted by another blogger. I will now return the favor to my friend at Buyside Notes who has done an excellent job of expanding upon my Kashagan piece, to show all of the many reasons that oil prices will not be declining any time soon. I have found his writing to be very informative and highly recommend that you sign-up for his research at www.buysidenotes.com. I’ve heard some very smart people speculate that oil prices will decline as new ... more

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This Is How The Banks Created The Last Crisis Part II

June 7, 2014 2:57 PM


  Yesterday, I walked into my local bank branch to get a reference letter needed for a travel visa (long story…) and I was immediately pounced on by tellers hungry for a commission. “Do you have a HELOC??” If you remember from Part I of this series, in December, I didn’t qualify for any sort of standard loan product since my irregular income meant that the mortgage could not be securitized. Well, it’s now six months later and quantitative easing has even further deranged the lending lan... more

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Do You Remember Gadzooks??

June 2, 2014 11:51 PM


Do you remember Gadzooks? Probably not (yet it had over 400 stores only a decade ago). In five years, I’ll be able to ask you the same question about Wet Seal (WTSLA), Aeropostale (ARO), Body Central (BODY), Cache (CACH) and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN). You won’t remember any of these because, despite having spent tens of millions a year in marketing, they have no brand equity. No one cares if they exist or not and someone will easily fill their empty slot at the mall, when they’re liquidated. It... more

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Kashagan

May 26, 2014 2:09 AM


Ever since oil prices bottomed in 2002, people have wanted to believe that new supply would reduce prices. Over the past decade, they’ve talked about increased Iraqi and Libyan oil; there has been the promise of tar sands and Brazilian pre-salts and now they’re talking about shale oil. Yet, despite all of this talk, world oil production has plateaued for years. The simple truth is that much of the world’s easy oil has now been exploited. The world isn’t running out of oil any time soon, but... more

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