March 25, 2019

Why The Fed Should Not Stop Raising Rates


A very smart and wealthy friend always reminds me that you have to invest in the market landscape that exists today—not the one you wish for. That said, I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who views the capital markets through the lens of financial history. That history would imply that the Fed should keep hiking rates and ignore the yield curve. ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
March 11, 2019

The Spread Between Growth And Value Has Gotten Crazy…


If you had to distill today’s stock market down to one overriding narrative, it would be the flow of capital into consistent growth businesses and away from anything with the slightest hint of cyclicality or earnings volatility. I full subscribe to the market’s belief that a business with steady growth should trade at a premium to the mid-cycle earnings multiple of one with more ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
March 3, 2019

Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON


For Part I Click Here This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of equipment from a depreciation standpoint? What is the eventual cost ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA, TSLAQ
March 1, 2019

End Of The Road…


All Ponzi schemes follow a basic rule; as long as more money is coming in than out, the scheme can continue to inflate. When money stops flowing in, the scheme collapses—often quite rapidly. I believe that Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) is near the final stages of this arc. Excluding stock option exercises, cash is no longer inbound; meanwhile Tesla can no longer use financial ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLAQ
February 12, 2019

Great Bargains In Shipping…


I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap or even get cheaper. In terms of valuation, there is no question that most US ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
Scroll Up