September 27, 2015 2:54 AM
Starting at the end of 2014, I wrote a number of pieces (There Will Be Blood!!, There Will Be Blood!! (Part II), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III.V)) detailing how QE was facilitating the production of certain real assets like oil where the production decision was no longer being tied to profitability. For instance, shale producers could borrow cheaply, produce at a loss and debt investors would simply look the other way because of the attractive yields that ... more
September 7, 2015 4:51 PM
It's now been about 10 months since I last wrote about the Chinese Renminbi (CNY). At the time, I was bearish and expecting a decline in the CNY (which has since happened).
White vertical line is the first article date
Now here’s the thing about devaluations; when the structural forces say that a controlled currency should devalue—it usually does. It’s rare to see a “one and done,” especially when the currency is only allowed to devalue by a few percent—as it did in August.
To review wh... more
September 3, 2015 3:23 PM
So, I was sitting in the Plaza De Los Coches in Cartagena, Colombia. It was past midnight, but still 95 degrees with an asphyxiating humidity that I have yet to experience in Miami. Fortunately, I had a cold beer in hand and was surrounded by good friends. In any case, I was transfixed by the parade of drunken tourists, prostitutes and the awkwardly comical pollination of the two. Yes, for over four centuries, despite revolutions, plagues, endemic crime, pirate induced destruction and a whol... more
July 12, 2015 10:52 PM
As many of you know, I live in Miami—what you probably don’t know, is that without the cocaine trade, Miami would still be a backwater like Fort Meyers—good weather, some interesting architecture, but not much modern development. Instead, Miami is the capital of Latin America. It got to that pinnacle through the activities of a motley band of Colombians—none more famous than Pablo Escobar.
With the cocaine coming in, the money had to go out or at least get laundered into something. As you l... more
June 4, 2015 10:24 AM
Many years ago, when I still invested in mining companies, I visited a promising exploration target in South America. As we drove up a river valley towards the deposit, we entered a lunar landscape where nothing grew. The valley walls were denuded of vegetation and the river ran orange from acid mine drainage. As we travelled the next 10 or so miles, the earth grew pock-marked by diggings and heaps of alluvium. Within this backdrop there were many villages where all residents seemed to be wo... more