May 14, 2012 5:36 AM
I like investing in commodities because they’re very simple to understand—it’s all about supply and demand. Naturally, I take a very strong interest in the increasing demand for gold coming out of China. You see, in the short run, the paper markets (leveraged traders) rule the day. In the longer run, the physical market is all that matters. In the past few months, we’ve seen some very important changes in the physical market for gold—China is hungry.Monthly Chinese Gold Imports (excludes March's... more
May 9, 2012 1:55 AM
This is a repeat (slightly edited) of a piece I posted on May 6, 2010. It's as valid now as any other time after a bad loss.
There are good days, there are bad days and there are awful days. Yesterday was a debacle. Almost everything our fund owns was down. Some positions were down more than ten percent. Even worse, we stopped out on a number of trading positions. It was a mess. Our portfolio looks like a crime scene—all red. My dad tells me that some days you’re a butterfly and some days ... more
May 6, 2012 8:24 AM
A few weeks ago, I was having a chat with a commercial real estate broker here in Miami. We were both baffled by the stratospheric rise in trophy properties in Miami, so he gave a quick example. A wealthy client wanted to get a property “priced out.” This meant that he wanted to have a bidding contest to see where others thought the price was. (This is one of the many services that my friend offers top clients of his—sometimes it brings in commissions, sometimes it’s all for show). They chos... more
April 24, 2012 12:45 AM
According to a friend, "Since XAU was first invented in 1984, there have only been six days when the ratio of XAU to spot gold has been lower than it was at this morning's bottom; all of those six days occurred during October-November 2008. The extreme unpopularity of gold mining shares is striking especially when compared with the eagerness of average people to consider precious metals in one form or another, such as via exchange-traded funds."
Let’s start with the obvious, just ... more
April 18, 2012 1:01 PM
Energold reported earnings about two weeks ago. Since then, I have received about a dozen emails asking “my thoughts.” Look, if I have something to say, I’ll say it. I didn’t even bother to delve into the earnings report until yesterday. If you live and die by one quarter, you will get chopped to pieces. I own things because of long term macro themes—not because of how expenses and revenues get allocated during one quarter. The Energold thesis is very much alive and well. According to the Me... more
