November 4, 2018

TOO Much Debt…


I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more stabilized cash flow stream would evolve. In the interim, you were paying about 5-times stabilized ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TOO
October 25, 2018

“Q3 Results Secured”


On October 11, I noted that “…I have booked all of my Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) Jan 2019 250/175 put spreads after owning them for almost a year, at a reference price of $255 compared to a reference price of $320 when I first wrote about them. While I am certain that Tesla collapses in the near future, all evidence seems to show that they’ve ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
October 23, 2018

Trouble In Arkansas


During every credit cycle, there is one national lender that all other lenders try to emulate. This is because a combination of rapid asset growth and elevated net interest margins leads to rapid earnings growth and share price appreciation. Unfortunately, in order to do that, you have to make a lot of risky loans and pretend they’re totally safe. Remember Countrywide Financial? They were ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: OZK, JOE
October 11, 2018

One Ring To Rule Them All…


Last week, US interest rates completed a multi-year reversal pattern and broke out over a three-decade downtrend line. I believe that interest rates move in generational cycles and the chart pattern has now confirmed a long-term trend towards higher interest rates. This trend is across the entire US duration curve and appears to have been followed by similar moves in many other global benchmarks. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Aimia, Viemed, Tesla, Tidewater
October 3, 2018

It’s Tidewater Time!!


Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it would never come back. As I noted in an update in July, shale isn’t the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW ESV NE
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