Hasta Luego Mexican REITs

March 9, 2017 1:27 AM


Him: I think people are wrong. There are lots of instances where the Fed has raised rates and nothing bad has happened.Me: Name one time.Him: hmmm…. Oh crap!!Yea, we’re getting to that moment where people realize that rates may finally matter in a highly leveraged economy. My good friend Tal, made that point over a year ago.  I hope you took his warning and lightened up on interest rate sensitive assets.Let’s think of a typical REIT called Ponzi REIT (Ticker symbol PREIT). They’ve been out there... more

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NZME

February 26, 2017 5:23 PM


As I scour the world for opportunity, I’m usually looking at macro themes or misplaced pessimism or some other reason for an asset’s current undervaluation with an eventual catalyst. Sometimes, in that process, I simply stumble upon something that is unusually cheap. Normally I choose not to write about these, because being cheap tends to be boring—especially if there’s no added story. After some urging from friends, I intend to write about more of these situations. As always, the hard analytica... more

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Star Bulk Redux (Time To Book Gains)

February 24, 2017 1:54 AM


I like to invest in commodity sectors that are currently losing money but at an inflection point. The companies tend to be undergoing a winnowing process with lots of bankruptcy and dilution for existing shareholders. While this may sound terrifying for some investors, this process sets up the next bull market for that sector as it consolidates players, reduces capacity and often eliminates debt. More importantly, with assets in that sector valued at a substantial discount to replacement cost, t... more

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Recent Interview

January 23, 2017 8:54 PM


I was recently interviewed by Chris Lowe at Bonner & Partners about my views on the market. Please click here to read it.

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Believe In America (Part III) Avoid Lobbyist Stocks

January 13, 2017 1:31 PM


With the stock market continuing to make new highs, it feels almost irresponsible for me to talk about things to buy without at least waiting for a pullback. Therefore, I think it makes sense to talk about what to sell.One of the defining characteristics of the Trump administration will be “draining the swamp.” That means a lot of things to a lot of people, but as it relates to stocks, it means that if a company relies on subsidies, rebates, regulations and government meddling in the free market... more

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