Thank you for your VXX detailed discussion.
Would be great if you could do a similar analysis on UNG.
Really the same concept applies. Figure out how steep the roll curve is and plot it out on a spreadsheet. Many of these are decaying assets. I only mentioned VXX because it is so egregious.
your column on vxx was interesting. today the gold futures were up about 10 and the gld was even to down. what would explain that and is gld rigged? thanks.
I don’t think GLD is ‘rigged’. There is likely a good reason for the divergence. Remember that gold futures close in the pit and GLD continues trading until the NYSE close. Gold was up after the pit session closed and therefore GLD was up. The next day, the starting points don’t match up. That is likely the majority of the divergence.
Its well known that the fertilizer stocks (e.g., POT, MOS, AGU) are heavily traded by hedgies. Do you have a general opinion of the sector? I like the fundamental outlook for fertilizer demand, but the valuations appear to be high. Thanks.
I really do not know much about these stocks. I think the fertilizer sector should see increased demand over time–will that help these shares? I just don’t know. Sorry.