01/12/2018

Kuppy, you’re being too hard on Musk. He’s the JESUS OF TECH. He’ll figure it out and exceed your wildest dreams.

“JESUS OF TECH”?? Are you trying to imply that he’ll die broke with serious legal issues? In that case, I can certainly forsee that…


In your annual review, you forgot GREK which is up 10%. Happy new year!

I never owned any GREK, but look at my 2 longs I mentioned with the article. TPEIR GA (up 70%) and ALPHA GA (up 25%)

Unfortunately, I didn’t really have confidence or speak much about them, so figured I’d ignore them. I sold them at year end as they were small positions that I didn’t have much confidence in.


Glad to see you writing frequently again. A friend made a great point…even if Tesla runs out of cash, there will be Chinese and Arab investors climbing over each other to throw more money at them. Your thoughts?

Why would someone want into this?

Look at the dozens of auto makers with new products coming out in 2018 and 2019. What makes TSLA special? It’s just a car marker with a commodity product which seems to already be last generation in terms of tech.


Hi Kuppy,

Great idea re: 2020 TSLA bear spread. Thanks. Here is John Petersen’s latest SA missive re: cobalt supply perils. Petersen is a long-time TSLA bear:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131901-glencores-investor-update-confirmed-analysis-teslas-cobalt-supply-chain-risk

Think cobalt stays tight for 2-3 years but there’s actually a LOT of supply coming from public and private groups. Don’t overstay your long in cobalt. Also batteries are evolving to have less cobalt and more nickel and other metals

Tsla is screwed regardless of what cobalt does


Hi Kuppy,

Love and appreciate your independent and out-of-the-box analysis and recommendations.

What are your thoughts about crypto currencies?

Glad you like the site.

I have ZERO interest in crypto-currencies. They’re just Ponzi schemes


Lol the standardized Brookfield 5% for Canadian Pensioners! You realize, that I’ve made a successful career out of selling that product to Canadian Pensioners lol. They simply never blow up.

Not surprised… haha


When you wrote about TOO, you didn’t mention that in the past, management have noted that their FPSO assets get a percentage of the economics of higher oil prices as part of the contracts. Do you have any data on this?

Unfortunately, transparency at TOO is minimal. I guess we should just be happy in knowing that things will get better at higher oil prices, but I cannot quantify this.


In your TOO article, you promised you’d talk more about shuttle tankers. Without spoiling the surprise, which stock interests you?

I own some KNOP. I really like shuttle tankers here, but it’s up about 10% from where I was buying in the low 20’s so I’ve been hesitant to talk about it yet. I try and only talk about stocks that are at or below the price that I bought mine at.


Kups, on something like TDW where it may be dead money for a while until offshore recovers, how do you think about when to buy?

This is always a tough one. I tend to buy when it’s cheap and the leading fundamentals (oil price) seem to be recovering. We are now 3 years into this down-turn in offshore demand, and with special surveys needed every 5 years, this should start to bite in terms of capacity. By the time offshore is turning, it will be too late to buy the cheap shares. I let it chop around for a few months after coming out of bankruptcy and it seems to have found its range in the mid to high 20’s, I suspect that unless something goes wrong in offshore or the price of oil drops dramatically, it’s seen its lows and will gradually churn higher. It would be a double from here just to get to the value per vessel of GLF, which also just came out of bankruptcy (making TDW a rather dramatic mispricing due to the asset impairments).

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