CAD Is “Breaking Out”…
June 7, 2019
Giga-Roll
June 25, 2019

06/09/2019

I have been doing a few podcasts lately.

I chatted with my buddy Mike Alkin last week for his podcast. Click this link if you want to hear it. We cover a whole lot of topics. http://themikealkinshow.curzioresearch.libsynpro.com/global-investor-reveals-how-to-take-advantage-of-oft-missed-opportunities-ep-62

I also chatted about Greece with my buddies at Market Huddle (my part starts at the 23 minute mark) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or2AiExWpS8

…And now I’ll answer your questions from the past few weeks…


Kuppy

What is going to cause the Canadian dollar to go up is the Conservative party winning the October federal election 

That may very well be what CAD is saying as it breaks out


I am an avid reader of your website and an investment manager myself. I am fairly familiar with battery technology, hydrogen, and related topics. The report that you posted is unfortunately purely hype with no substance.

Any serious report would have some basic data points such as power density or energy efficiency comparisons, such as in this report:

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/11/hydrogen-fuel-cell-battery-electric-vehicles-technology-rundown/

The problem with hydrogen for cars is that it fails on simple physics. It is at best very energy inefficient compared to an EV, and requires the construction of a parallel hydrogen transportation system. Hydrogen vehicles are the same as an EV, but trade the big battery for a smaller one, plus a pressurized tank and a fuel cell.

All of the above would probably make the hydrogen car massively more expensive under any scenario. Not to mention the implication of sitting on an extremely pressurized hydrogen tank in the case of an accident.

I post this as I have no horse in the hydrogen race and feel I ought to post the other side of the story. I personally think that capital and technology can overcome certain limitations of physics, but no one should invest without at least knowing the bear thesis. That link above spells it out quite well.


The issue with Hydrogen (Gas)  is Storage and infrastructure. These issues are greatly ameliorated by using  Ammonia https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/07/ammonia-renewable-fuel-made-sun-air-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon

Figured I’d post this for anyone who wants to keep learning about hydrogen.


Kuppy,

I see you talking currencies but you also say “I don’t take leveraged positions (giving me the ability to hold on)”  Why don’t you use leverage? Otherwise isn’t the movement too small to matter?

Thanks

To start with, I don’t like leverage. I don’t want to be the guy who thinks something is cheap but has to sell because he gets a margin call or hits a stop loss or something. I have a basket, I allocate that basket around from time to time and I just sit there. Currencies aren’t the core of what I do. However, I tend to make a surprising amount of money at it by NOT using margin and waiting for currencies to move on their own terms. An extra 1,000 or 2,000 bps every few years is plenty of extra performance to me. I think that the guys who are leveraged are asking for trouble. In total, my whole currency basket against USD is less than 100% of my equity. I like it that way so that I can add more if it goes against me.


Kuppy – Appreciate all the work you do, first and foremost!  Have loved reading your blogs in my spare time. I’ve been searching the internet for up to date weekly data on shipping time charter rates, but having trouble finding a source available to the public.  Found a few sites with a month or two old information, but nothing more real-time  Are there any you can recommend providing recent data without a subscription for a small time individual investor?

https://m.investing.com/indices/baltic-clean-tanker-historical-data


Won’t Greece’s recovery be impaired if there is a worldwide recession?

Small markets tend to be more isolated from world events. If there is a worldwide recession, nothing will do well but Greece has already been in a recession for a decade. How much worse can it get? I could even see Greece recover with pro-market reforms while the rest of the world sinks. Basically, there are worldwide recessions from time to time, they’re nearly impossible to time and if you always fear them, you never end up making any investments. From time to time, I’ll be wrong because of global macro events and that’s just part of investing…


Kuppy!! Loved your Q3 and year-end Tslaq financial sleuthing articles. Can you please do one for Q1? Show me how to pull the numbers apart.

I really don’t want this site to become a compendium of Tesla accounting irregularities. There’s hundreds of twitter accounts that do that already. However, if you want to have some fun with TSLA, plug the quarterly Work In Progress figures for the last 12 quarters into a spreadsheet. Then use “=MEDIAN(Q1/2016:Q4/2018)” Hilariously, you have just solved for the Q1/2019 Work In Progress number. There are quite a few other examples of them apparently using plugs from excel formulas to solve for the accounting numbers. They sure seem to have gotten real sloppy at securities fraud lately. Wonder if they’re distracted with other bigger problems…


https://www.businessinsider.com/aladdin-stars-problem-with-tesla-known-as-whompy-wheels-2019-6

Tesla just tried to kill Aladdin!!  HAHAHA

Tesla has tried to kill all of their customers by selling faulty vehicles. This is a very well written article.

I have given up on expecting anyone in the government to do anything to prosecute securities fraud or even stop Tesla from killing customers. However, you cannot have wheels falling off celebrity owned cars. The Tesla collapse will ultimately be caused when people refuse to buy new cars due to the terrible workmanship and high probability of the vehicle self-destructing while being driven. Current Tesla owners know future Tesla owners. There is a reason that sales continue to underwhelm. These people all tell horror stories.


On Tesla, how do you know that with all the short interest, there canot be an infinity short squeeze like with volkswagon? How you protecting yourself from this? Do you own calls too?

Firstly, I don’t know anything. I am taking educated guesses and using long-dated puts so that in a worst case scenario, I only lose my premium. If you are worried about an “infinity squeeze” your position is probably too large and you should reduce it. I don’t own any calls as it seems silly to pay for upside protection when I don’t need it as I only own puts. Unless something changes in my thesis, I will let the next 8 months of my puts play out as planned.


 

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