Mall Tour 2017 (Part II)

July 5, 2017 1:51 PM


Malls are bearing the brunt of changes in retail, but they’re only the canary in the coal mine. Let’s start with a simple premise; commercial real estate (CRE) will change more in the next decade than it has in the past hundred years. Anyone who thinks they can fully foresee how it will evolve is lying to you. The only certainty is that highly leveraged real estate investors and lenders will be obliterated as current models evolve faster than anticipated. In the past, retail was retail, war... more

Categories: Travels
Positions Mentioned: none
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Mall Tour 2017

June 25, 2017 7:19 PM


For the past few years, most retailers have struggled. Of course, it’s easy to blame Amazon.com, but it is only one of many causes. At the same time, for us hedgies living in major cities with luxury malls, there is confusion about the problem itself—my mall is crowded and people are shopping. After having debated with friends endlessly on what the real root of the problem is, I decided it was time to actually go investigate. Every city has its own story and the local mall is the nexus of that s... more

Categories: Travels
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Ready, AIM, Sell??

June 13, 2017 9:06 AM


I have spent much of my career looking for strong macro trends that will drive the performance of individual companies. However, over the past few years, I’ve had much more success buying overreactions to bad news, as the makeup of the market has changed and short-term thinking pervades investment decisions. Often, large fund holders sell without even understanding what the news means. Instead, they’re more concerned with showing their investors that they didn’t own a stock that’s down 80%--... more

Categories: Current Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
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The Lowdown From LD Micro

June 11, 2017 11:11 AM


I don’t attend a lot of investment conferences as I prefer visiting companies on their home turf —you learn more that way. However, the LD Micro Invitational is “special” and after having missed the last few, I felt compelled to attend last week's and get an update on the state of micro-cap investing (I define micro-cap as companies trading for under $50 million market cap). Besides, where else can you gain access to almost 200 undiscovered companies, knock off a dozen 1 on 1’s and drink all... more

Categories: General
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Re-Reinventing The Death Spiral

May 31, 2017 5:40 PM


On April 9, I wrote about how certain companies have death spiral financings in place and you could literally short them at will for almost risk free returns. Now, barely 7 weeks later, Dryships Inc (DRYS – USA) is already down by 90% since I wrote that piece. I’ve been shorting DRYS and a few others like it for quite some time and re-loading as the position size declined—hence my returns have been even better than that 90% return. However, based on last Friday’s update, the balance sheet is... more

Categories: Current Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
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