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May 21, 2019

Time To Sell Something…


Back in December, when anything with a CUSIP was getting dumped by hedge funds facing liquidations, I repeatedly made the point (here, here, here) that it was the time to buy—particularly those assets that were at the epicenter of those hedge fund liquidations. Now, five months later, with most securities having recovered quite nicely, I want to remind you of how dark it was ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD, STNG, TSLA
May 13, 2019

We’re Gonna Need More Bag-holders…


I have been highly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector (a.k.a the Ponzi Sector). The sector consists of companies that are effectively Ponzi Schemes; in that they have accelerating losses but show blistering growth rates in order to attract new capital. This all worked fine when companies kept their free floats small enough to be manipulated like Tesla (TSLA – USA) or stayed private ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
April 5, 2019

Cyprus Part 1


I’m writing to you from the beach in Larnaca, Cyprus. It’s 6am and I’m jetlagged, hopped up on coffee and ready to get exploring. Why Cyprus? Next week, I’m speaking at the annual VALUEx Caspian conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hosted by my good friend Isaac Schwartz of Robotti & Company Advisors www.valuexkz.com. To break up the flights, I stared at a map and Cyprus ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 28, 2019

Won’t They Add More Boats…?


Reader: …But Kuppy, won’t they build more boats and crush rates? Me: With what money?   Shipping is a highly cyclical industry. A boat lasts for two decades but earns most of its money over a handful of quarters—where it often earns truly extraordinary profits. Unfortunately, these earnings incentivize over-ordering and a subsequent glut of vessels for years into the future; destroying charter rates ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
March 11, 2019

The Spread Between Growth And Value Has Gotten Crazy…


If you had to distill today’s stock market down to one overriding narrative, it would be the flow of capital into consistent growth businesses and away from anything with the slightest hint of cyclicality or earnings volatility. I full subscribe to the market’s belief that a business with steady growth should trade at a premium to the mid-cycle earnings multiple of one with more ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
March 3, 2019

Can’t Spell Felon Without ELON


For Part I Click Here This may surprise people, but accounting isn’t a black and white endeavor—there’s actually a lot of gray area—particularly when you deal with accruals and estimates for future events. This is the reason that two very similar companies can report very different short-term results. What is the useful life of equipment from a depreciation standpoint? What is the eventual cost ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA, TSLAQ
March 1, 2019

End Of The Road…


All Ponzi schemes follow a basic rule; as long as more money is coming in than out, the scheme can continue to inflate. When money stops flowing in, the scheme collapses—often quite rapidly. I believe that Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) is near the final stages of this arc. Excluding stock option exercises, cash is no longer inbound; meanwhile Tesla can no longer use financial ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLAQ
February 12, 2019

Great Bargains In Shipping…


I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap or even get cheaper. In terms of valuation, there is no question that most US ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
January 13, 2019

Scorpio Tankers


Increased government regulation is a fact of life—particularly in the shipping sector. As a shipping investor, this tends to be good news; as disruption usually upsets existing trade patterns and leads to an increase in charter rates. I learned the benefit of this nearly two decades ago, when single-hull crude carriers were phased out following the Exxon Valdez accident. The resulting shortage of new ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
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