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September 10, 2018

Iron Bridge Update


Just over three months ago, I wrote about Iron Bridge Resources (IBR – Canada) and noted that with a hostile bid in place at 75 cents, you could buy it at 74 cents and have a situation with minimal downside and quite a lot of upside—especially as my good friend, Josh Young, was calling the shots. My theory was that either; another buyer would ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: IBR CN
July 27, 2018

Air Canada Is Screwed


Ever since Air Canada announced the termination of their Aeroplan agreement with Aimia (AIM – Canada) last year, I have suspected that this was a prelude to them eventually acquiring Aeroplan. I believed this due to simple math. It will cost Air Canada $200 to $400 per cardmember to organically build their own loyalty program. Aeroplan has 5 million cardmembers, hence trying to build ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
July 9, 2018

PSO = Peak Shale Optimism


Ever since oil prices collapsed in 2014, there has been an underlying belief that oil prices could not go up due to endless oversupply from shale oil. Now, 4 years later, that supply growth is stalling. There are various reasons for this, but underlying everything else, is the fact that the basic economics of shale just aren’t that robust. This is partly due to ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ESV, NE, TDW, TDW Warrants
July 1, 2018

Ivar Kreuger Goes “Green”…


Let me start with an admission; following Tesla (TSLA – USA) has taken an increasingly disproportionate amount of my time over the past few months. At times, I cannot seem to look away from the unfolding train-wreck. I think this is because Tesla combines elements of every major securities fraud over the past century; along with the frenetic energy of a penny-stock promoter lurching ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
June 25, 2018

All It Was Cracked Up To Be…


One of the toughest decisions when investing in growth companies; is when to sell the winners. The issue is that successful businesses continue to increase in value over time. Therefore, selling means that you miss out on some of that growth. That said; I tend to find that despite having a multi-year forward valuation target, sometimes, a good chunk of that valuation gets realized ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JYNT, TSLA
June 13, 2018

Hey JOE–Where Ya Goin With That Land Over There…??


Friend: Kuppy, stop the car!! Me: Uggh, again? Friend: Let’s get out. Me: We have 177,000 acres to visit. We can’t stop at every damn acre. Friend: Yeah, but not every acre is next to million dollar homes. Me: …A surprising number of them seem to be… It’s already noon and we’ve seen less than one percent of the portfolio… Friend: It’s just amazing. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JOE
May 28, 2018

Iron Bridge Resources


Let me start by saying that I am not an expert on oil geology; I’m not even a “sorta expert.” If you called me a novice at oil geology, I wouldn’t be offended. To prove this point, I’ll proudly admit that I guide my occasional oil investments by my “donut theory of petroleum geology.” What is the donut theory? Well, it basically says that ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: IBR CN
April 11, 2018

Time To Grab My Pitchfork (AIM Edition)


I have written about Aimia (AIM- Canada) a few times now (article 1, article 2, article 3). For a summary, AIM operates loyalty programs which are highly cash generative. The shares have collapsed following Air Canada notifying AIM that they will not continue their partnership when it ends in 2020. I figure AIM is worth somewhere north of $6 per share if you assume ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
March 29, 2018

Tesla Learns About Reflexivity


Before George Soros focused his energies on undermining Western Society, he wrote a book detailing his theory of reflexivity. Reflexivity is the theory that the market’s own expectations about an event can help impact the actual future outcome of the event in a feedback loop of sorts. Take a mining company that needs to raise money to build a mine. Since the cost of ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
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