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November 18, 2018

40% Less Than Carl Paid…


In the two decades that I’ve been investing in stocks, one of my favorite strategies is to follow very successful investors and wait for the opportunity to buy one of their holdings at a sizable discount to what they paid—particularly if the thesis seems to be playing out. With that in mind, it is worth noting that Carl Icahn is one of the greatest ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SandRidge
November 4, 2018

TOO Much Debt…


I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more stabilized cash flow stream would evolve. In the interim, you were paying about 5-times stabilized ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TOO
October 25, 2018

“Q3 Results Secured”


On October 11, I noted that “…I have booked all of my Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) Jan 2019 250/175 put spreads after owning them for almost a year, at a reference price of $255 compared to a reference price of $320 when I first wrote about them. While I am certain that Tesla collapses in the near future, all evidence seems to show that they’ve ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
October 23, 2018

Trouble In Arkansas


During every credit cycle, there is one national lender that all other lenders try to emulate. This is because a combination of rapid asset growth and elevated net interest margins leads to rapid earnings growth and share price appreciation. Unfortunately, in order to do that, you have to make a lot of risky loans and pretend they’re totally safe. Remember Countrywide Financial? They were ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: OZK, JOE
October 11, 2018

One Ring To Rule Them All…


Last week, US interest rates completed a multi-year reversal pattern and broke out over a three-decade downtrend line. I believe that interest rates move in generational cycles and the chart pattern has now confirmed a long-term trend towards higher interest rates. This trend is across the entire US duration curve and appears to have been followed by similar moves in many other global benchmarks. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Aimia, Viemed, Tesla, Tidewater
October 3, 2018

It’s Tidewater Time!!


Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it would never come back. As I noted in an update in July, shale isn’t the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW ESV NE
September 10, 2018

Iron Bridge Update


Just over three months ago, I wrote about Iron Bridge Resources (IBR – Canada) and noted that with a hostile bid in place at 75 cents, you could buy it at 74 cents and have a situation with minimal downside and quite a lot of upside—especially as my good friend, Josh Young, was calling the shots. My theory was that either; another buyer would ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: IBR CN
July 27, 2018

Air Canada Is Screwed


Ever since Air Canada announced the termination of their Aeroplan agreement with Aimia (AIM – Canada) last year, I have suspected that this was a prelude to them eventually acquiring Aeroplan. I believed this due to simple math. It will cost Air Canada $200 to $400 per cardmember to organically build their own loyalty program. Aeroplan has 5 million cardmembers, hence trying to build ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
July 9, 2018

PSO = Peak Shale Optimism


Ever since oil prices collapsed in 2014, there has been an underlying belief that oil prices could not go up due to endless oversupply from shale oil. Now, 4 years later, that supply growth is stalling. There are various reasons for this, but underlying everything else, is the fact that the basic economics of shale just aren’t that robust. This is partly due to ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ESV, NE, TDW, TDW Warrants
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