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November 10, 2017

Most Canadian PM’s Have Crappy AIM


I previously wrote about Aimia here and here. Sorry in advance for all the numbers but it’s necessary… So, earnings came out Wednesday night and I quickly read through for a few key segments of interest to me (redemptions, card spend, cash build, PLM) and within a few minutes, I was celebrating with a bottle of tequila.   For a quick backstory, AIM has been in the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
October 31, 2017

When Will The Tesla Stock Promote Finally Fail???


The history of industry leading consumer tech products has not been kind to investors who overstay their welcome. You need look no further than all the hundreds of notable recent failures, to realize that these companies almost always flame out. The list below (in no particular order) is a nice trip down memory lane of former favorites, that are now either bankrupt or shells ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
September 14, 2017

Sold My NZME


Back in February, I wrote about NZME LTD (NZM – Australia), the dominant and highly undervalued media group in New Zealand. At the time, I said that “results will probably range between meh and bleh…,” which is what first half 2017 results showed—declining revenue and stable EBIT. While the stock is certainly cheap at about five times cash flow and an 11.5% dividend yield, NZM ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
August 13, 2017

Cheaper & Less Risky…


Part of what makes the stock market so lucrative, is that it often responds in unexpected ways to new data—offering outsized profits to those that take advantage of these opportunities. Take the curious case of Aimia Inc (AIM – Canada) which I wrote about previously. The bear argument at the time, was that the Aeroplan business was permanently impaired by the pending termination of a partnership ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
August 3, 2017

That Was SNAPtacular…


Less than a month ago, I warned of SNAPageddon in SNAP Inc. (SNAP – USA) as venture capital shares unlocked and were dumped on the market. Shares of SNAP have now declined by approximately 30% since then—hence my puts increased in value by a few hundred percent. While I expect earnings next week to be abysmal, followed by more share unlocks, I’m cognizant of not being ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: None
July 17, 2017

Dr. Feelgood


As an investor, my preference is to find long-term macro trends and invest alongside of those trends. Unfortunately, the current market tends to overvalue the companies participating in these trends, giving me fewer opportunities to find attractive trend-based investments. However, that hasn’t stopped me from searching and occasionally finding a real interesting one. An increasing percentage of the population is aging and this often ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JYNT
July 9, 2017

SNAPageddon


Back in 2000, as the tech bubble was popping, I made a fortune by shorting recent IPOs right as previously restricted shares were unlocked for sale. These companies came public with only a small percentage of the stock sold in the initial IPO in order to create scarcity and an overvalued stock price. 6 months later, a waterfall of stock would hit the market ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
June 13, 2017

Ready, AIM, Sell??


I have spent much of my career looking for strong macro trends that will drive the performance of individual companies. However, over the past few years, I’ve had much more success buying overreactions to bad news, as the makeup of the market has changed and short-term thinking pervades investment decisions. Often, large fund holders sell without even understanding what the news means. Instead, they’re ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
May 31, 2017

Re-Reinventing The Death Spiral


On April 9, I wrote about how certain companies have death spiral financings in place and you could literally short them at will for almost risk free returns. Now, barely 7 weeks later, Dryships Inc (DRYS – USA) is already down by 90% since I wrote that piece. I’ve been shorting DRYS and a few others like it for quite some time and re-loading as ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
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