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September 14, 2017

Sold My NZME


Back in February, I wrote about NZME LTD (NZM – Australia), the dominant and highly undervalued media group in New Zealand. At the time, I said that “results will probably range between meh and bleh…,” which is what first half 2017 results showed—declining revenue and stable EBIT. While the stock is certainly cheap at about five times cash flow and an 11.5% dividend yield, NZM ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
August 13, 2017

Cheaper & Less Risky…


Part of what makes the stock market so lucrative, is that it often responds in unexpected ways to new data—offering outsized profits to those that take advantage of these opportunities. Take the curious case of Aimia Inc (AIM – Canada) which I wrote about previously. The bear argument at the time, was that the Aeroplan business was permanently impaired by the pending termination of a partnership ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
August 3, 2017

That Was SNAPtacular…


Less than a month ago, I warned of SNAPageddon in SNAP Inc. (SNAP – USA) as venture capital shares unlocked and were dumped on the market. Shares of SNAP have now declined by approximately 30% since then—hence my puts increased in value by a few hundred percent. While I expect earnings next week to be abysmal, followed by more share unlocks, I’m cognizant of not being ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: None
July 17, 2017

Dr. Feelgood


As an investor, my preference is to find long-term macro trends and invest alongside of those trends. Unfortunately, the current market tends to overvalue the companies participating in these trends, giving me fewer opportunities to find attractive trend-based investments. However, that hasn’t stopped me from searching and occasionally finding a real interesting one. An increasing percentage of the population is aging and this often ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JYNT
July 9, 2017

SNAPageddon


Back in 2000, as the tech bubble was popping, I made a fortune by shorting recent IPOs right as previously restricted shares were unlocked for sale. These companies came public with only a small percentage of the stock sold in the initial IPO in order to create scarcity and an overvalued stock price. 6 months later, a waterfall of stock would hit the market ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
June 13, 2017

Ready, AIM, Sell??


I have spent much of my career looking for strong macro trends that will drive the performance of individual companies. However, over the past few years, I’ve had much more success buying overreactions to bad news, as the makeup of the market has changed and short-term thinking pervades investment decisions. Often, large fund holders sell without even understanding what the news means. Instead, they’re ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
May 31, 2017

Re-Reinventing The Death Spiral


On April 9, I wrote about how certain companies have death spiral financings in place and you could literally short them at will for almost risk free returns. Now, barely 7 weeks later, Dryships Inc (DRYS – USA) is already down by 90% since I wrote that piece. I’ve been shorting DRYS and a few others like it for quite some time and re-loading as ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
April 9, 2017

Reinventing The Death Spiral


About two decades ago, some unscrupulous hedge funds began tricking unsophisticated small cap companies into agreeing to “death spiral” converts (convertible debt). These were called “death spirals” as there was no set floor to the conversion price. Rather, they converted at some date in the future based on then market prices. Despite promising not to, these funds immediately began shorting shares with the goal ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 9, 2017

Hasta Luego Mexican REITs


Him: I think people are wrong. There are lots of instances where the Fed has raised rates and nothing bad has happened. Me: Name one time. Him: hmmm…. Oh crap!! Yea, we’re getting to that moment where people realize that rates may finally matter in a highly leveraged economy. My good friend Tal, made that point over a year ago.  I hope you took his warning and lightened up ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
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