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March 1, 2019

End Of The Road…


All Ponzi schemes follow a basic rule; as long as more money is coming in than out, the scheme can continue to inflate. When money stops flowing in, the scheme collapses—often quite rapidly. I believe that Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) is near the final stages of this arc. Excluding stock option exercises, cash is no longer inbound; meanwhile Tesla can no longer use financial ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLAQ
February 12, 2019

Great Bargains In Shipping…


I’m a value investor at heart, so I naturally gravitate towards cheap stocks. That said; companies are often cheap because of well understood problems. The money is made by having a divergent opinion for why things will get better, along with a catalyst—otherwise a cheap stock will stay cheap or even get cheaper. In terms of valuation, there is no question that most US ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
January 13, 2019

Scorpio Tankers


Increased government regulation is a fact of life—particularly in the shipping sector. As a shipping investor, this tends to be good news; as disruption usually upsets existing trade patterns and leads to an increase in charter rates. I learned the benefit of this nearly two decades ago, when single-hull crude carriers were phased out following the Exxon Valdez accident. The resulting shortage of new ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
January 4, 2019

King Dollar?


From time to time, the investment world takes something as accepted wisdom and just runs with it. For whatever reason, investors seem convinced that the US Dollar is destined to go higher. I’ve heard lots of smart opinions why; interest rate differentials, GDP growth rate differentials, “The Dollar Milkshake Theory,” “Prettiest Body in the Morgue” and the “Fear Trade.” Over the past two years, ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DXY
December 26, 2018

2018 Year End Review


Lots of bloggers have opinions on the stock market. Once a year, we compare returns and see who was right. Fortunately, 2018 was another great year for the home team—particularly due to the timing of my sell everything call on October 11. Let’s look at the positions I’ve spoken about on this site in order of their mention—starting with positions held over from 2017. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN, JYNT, TSLAQ, TOO, TDW, VMD CN, IBR CN, JOE, ESV, NE, SD, AR, GPOR, RRC
December 10, 2018

Taking Advantage Of The Energy Washout…


One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
December 3, 2018

Who’s Bullish On Natural Gas??


I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes have also increased rapidly. Meanwhile, pipeline bottlenecks have slowed down the pace of new supply ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
November 18, 2018

40% Less Than Carl Paid…


In the two decades that I’ve been investing in stocks, one of my favorite strategies is to follow very successful investors and wait for the opportunity to buy one of their holdings at a sizable discount to what they paid—particularly if the thesis seems to be playing out. With that in mind, it is worth noting that Carl Icahn is one of the greatest ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SandRidge
November 4, 2018

TOO Much Debt…


I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more stabilized cash flow stream would evolve. In the interim, you were paying about 5-times stabilized ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TOO
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