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December 15, 2016

Oil Services Update


Back in August, I noted that oil looked to be making a right shoulder and that I was buying a basket of oil service companies as many of these companies, particularly in the offshore service, space traded at tiny fractions of NAV. Since then, most of my basket made new lows before rallying strongly in the past few weeks. The companies in my basket are now ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
December 1, 2016

Believe In America (Part II)


When the Central Bankers started printing money in 2009, I knew they wouldn’t be able to stop before they took things to an unimaginable extreme. When you’re in government and your policy isn’t working, you keep pushing harder—like your career is at stake if you fail. When China embarked on a massive infrastructure binge to re-ignite economic growth in 2008, it was obvious that ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
August 18, 2016

Is This The Right Shoulder?


Everyone is asking: “Is this is the right shoulder in oil?” I know, I’m not a chart guy, but I certainly respect charts for entry points. Sentiment on oil is awful. Inventory is high. Refined inventory is off the charts. New supply is expected from all sorts of countries. Yeah, I’ve heard it all, but so have the charts. Here we are, and it ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
August 7, 2016

Fake Currency, Fake Exchange…(uggh)


So, the inevitable happened, someone hacked Bitfinex where I kept part of my Bitcoin stash. It sounds like I’m getting back 64% of my bitcoins and a BFX token which I can potentially exchange for shares of iFinex Inc., which happens to be the Bitcoin exchange that lost my damn bitcoins in the first place!!! Why would I want to own non-tradable illiquid equity ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
July 7, 2016

Brexit Bargains


In all my global wanderings, I’ve only been to London twice—during one of those visits, I didn’t even leave Heathrow. To say that I understand the inner psyche of the British is foolish, but I certainly would have voted in favor of Brexit. I would have voted this way, not because I’m uneducated, impoverished or racist. I certainly don’t feel disenfranchised. I would have ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
May 8, 2016

The Chinese Laundromat


What is the national pastime of China? If you answered gambling, you probably have a few Chinese friends. What is the national pastime of Chinese business people? If you answered tax evasion, corruption and money laundering, then you’ve tried to do business in China. When a handful of businessmen merged these two pastimes, they made a fortune by building casinos in Macao. Now, the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 7, 2016

Marketing Gets Another One Wrong (or right for us)


It’s been a week since I wrote that the institutional selling in Valeant (VRX:NYSE) would end on Thursday and pent up institutional buyers would show up on Friday. I didn’t expect a 40% move higher, but am not complaining either. My hunch is that under the hood, Valeant looks a lot more like SunEdison (SUNE:NASDAQ) than Allergan (AGN:NYSE) and I don’t want to stick around ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 30, 2016

Marketing Says “Sell Thursday/Buy Friday”


Let’s face it—portfolio management at most mutual fund groups has devolved to the point where you essentially mimic the index. If your favorite stock is weighted at 100 bps in the index, you may overweight it at 300 bps, but if you go to 500 bps, you face career risk if you get it wrong. Besides—who wants to risk getting it wrong? It’s so ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
February 29, 2016

Who Wants To Be Short Volatility?? I Don’t.


Nearly 5 years ago, I noted how the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX:AMEX) was “Designed To Fail.” Since then, excluding some rather terrifying spikes, it has reliably melted away as I suspected that it would. If you put the position on back in 2010, you made something better than 98% on your money. If you re-weighted the position on spikes in ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
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