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February 29, 2016

Who Wants To Be Short Volatility?? I Don’t.


Nearly 5 years ago, I noted how the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX:AMEX) was “Designed To Fail.” Since then, excluding some rather terrifying spikes, it has reliably melted away as I suspected that it would. If you put the position on back in 2010, you made something better than 98% on your money. If you re-weighted the position on spikes in ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
September 7, 2015

No Such Thing As Yuan Time…


It’s now been about 10 months since I last wrote about the Chinese Renminbi (CNY). At the time, I was bearish and expecting a decline in the CNY (which has since happened). White vertical line is the first article date Now here’s the thing about devaluations; when the structural forces say that a controlled currency should devalue—it usually does. It’s rare to see a “one ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
November 25, 2014

Yuan For The Money…


So, I’m chatting with my good friend “Man in Black” and he lets me in on a bit of a chart secret; the Chinese Renminbi (CNY) is starting to look awfully similar to the Japanese Yen (JPY) right before it put in a massive move. Long time readers will recall that after stalking it for a few months, I captured the inflection point in the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
September 16, 2013

Exiting MERC


On Friday, Mercer International (MERC:NASDAQ) spiked 10%. It is now quite near to the price when I purchased it, and I think the time has come to exit this investment. There is nothing wrong with the stock, but the thesis just hasn’t played out as I thought it would–or at least not in my timeframe as an investment. One day, there will be an ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
June 30, 2013

The Great Gold Shakeout of 2013


Gold means lots of things to lots of people. To some, it is a store of value, to others; it is a barbarous relic from a long-ago era of archaic finance. To some, it is a day-trading product, to others; it is meant for jewelry and little else. The issue with gold is that it has lots of personalities. Those personalities are the embodiment ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
May 19, 2013

Exiting Aircastle


Over the last two days, I’ve pondered the extreme stupidity of the European Central Bankers. I know that I wrote about them on Sunday, but I simply cannot get over how their actions have forever changed the face of the banking system. In the past, scared depositors did nothing. They were stupid enough to trust their governments. They never will again. Going forward, a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 4, 2013

Seven Years Is A Long Time To Wait….


  If there is one inexorable rule of investing, it is that over time, governments will do everything and anything needed to increase their tax revenues—even if it means sacrificing the moral high ground that they previously defended during election time. Nowhere has this appeared more obvious to me than when it relates to internet gambling. When its election time, the politicos all claim ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
January 25, 2013

Exiting TITN


Yesterday, I sold all of my Titan Machinery (TITN: NASDAQ) for almost a 40% gain in four months. I like the company, like the business model and think it’s a long term winner. At today’s valuation, it’s not particularly expensive or cheap. “Fairly valued” is probably the phrase that I would use. Throughout my career, I have made a whole lot of money buying ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
January 15, 2013

Sayounara To My Yen Short


All paper currencies are in bad shape. Some are worse off than others. In the race to the bottom, they will all win. We’ve now witnessed nearly a 10% drop in the Japanese Yen in a very short period of time. It was previously overvalued. It is still overvalued. The economic fundamentals of Japan are not good—however, currencies are political. I cannot imagine that ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
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