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October 16, 2022

Are DMs now EMs…???


The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk Read More
Positions Mentioned:
October 5, 2022

OPEC’s Counterattack…


The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen Read More
Positions Mentioned:
January 18, 2022

Oil Is The Wrecking Ball That We All Deserve…


I’ve been pretty clear on why oil is going higher. If you want a refresher, click here. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil is the wrecking ball that will crush every CUSIP, because the Fed will eventually panic. Look at bonds. They’re getting smashed along with equities today. This will blow up the Read More
Positions Mentioned: Oil
September 13, 2021

On Staying Liquid…


Investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often mental. Who cares if it is at 90% of fair value?? Recycle your capital. Why are you in a business with deteriorating numbers?? Recycle your capital. So what if it’s cheap, there’s no catalyst?? Recycle your Read More
Positions Mentioned:
March 12, 2021

Can’t Stop Selling GameStop Vol…


Ever since GameStop (GME – USA) pulled off a Melvinator, I have had various short vol GME option trades on. Often, this was some combination of deep out of the money (OTM) strike puts and a smattering of even further OTM calls. Yes, I know I said that shorting “Project Zimbabwe” is suicide and maybe I need to re-learn that lesson myself, but I’ll Read More
Positions Mentioned: GME
January 7, 2021

Everyone Back In The Pool…


Yesterday, January the 6th, a motley band of MAGA, Antifa and what appears to be a Minotaur, entered Congress uninvited. They had no plan, no leadership, few allies and no clear agenda. They were united by anger and a desire to fix something that was obviously broken—yet impossible to fix without the buy-in of entrenched special interests. After spending a few hours pissing off Read More
Positions Mentioned:
January 6, 2021

What The QS???


Over the past few quarters, I have written about various Event-Driven set-ups. This is because mismatches between buyers and sellers cluster around these events and drive share prices. If you’re waiting for fundamentals to matter, you may eventually be proven right, but you had better be willing to wait. Event-Driven situations are immediate. Why have Event-Driven moves become so much more accentuated lately? I Read More
Positions Mentioned: QS
October 2, 2020

On Inflection Investing…


Over the years, I have spent a lot of time talking about “inflection investments,” but have never really given a playbook for how to approach this genre of investments.  Given the number of questions I have received about various investments, clearly, I should have put out some guidance to invest by. What is an inflection investment? This is a situation where some dynamic piece Read More
Positions Mentioned: EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
June 24, 2020

Ready For The Re-Bal???


I frequently hear investors say that “there’s no such thing as free money in the markets.” I’d argue that those people are simply lazy. Once a year, the Russell Indexes re-balance. It’s rules-based and as the indexes and closet indexers get larger, the percentage of a company’s float involved gets larger. In many cases, 20% to 40% of a company’s total float changes hands Read More
Positions Mentioned: TNK