April 5, 2019

Cyprus Part 1


I’m writing to you from the beach in Larnaca, Cyprus. It’s 6am and I’m jetlagged, hopped up on coffee and ready to get exploring. Why Cyprus? Next week, I’m speaking at the annual VALUEx Caspian conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, hosted by my good friend Isaac Schwartz of Robotti & Company Advisors www.valuexkz.com. To break up the flights, I stared at a map and Cyprus ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 2, 2019

Failure To LYFToff…


Over the past few quarters, I have become increasingly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector, known amongst my friends as the Ponzi Sector. Why Ponzi Sector? Because these companies have no profits yet continue to raise new capital by showing explosive revenue growth. Oddly, the more revenue they show, the more money they lose, because incremental revenue is at a negative gross margin. Many ... Read More
Categories: General
Positions Mentioned: LYFT
March 28, 2019

Won’t They Add More Boats…?


Reader: …But Kuppy, won’t they build more boats and crush rates? Me: With what money?   Shipping is a highly cyclical industry. A boat lasts for two decades but earns most of its money over a handful of quarters—where it often earns truly extraordinary profits. Unfortunately, these earnings incentivize over-ordering and a subsequent glut of vessels for years into the future; destroying charter rates ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
March 25, 2019

Why The Fed Should Not Stop Raising Rates


A very smart and wealthy friend always reminds me that you have to invest in the market landscape that exists today—not the one you wish for. That said, I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who views the capital markets through the lens of financial history. That history would imply that the Fed should keep hiking rates and ignore the yield curve. ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
March 11, 2019

The Spread Between Growth And Value Has Gotten Crazy…


If you had to distill today’s stock market down to one overriding narrative, it would be the flow of capital into consistent growth businesses and away from anything with the slightest hint of cyclicality or earnings volatility. I full subscribe to the market’s belief that a business with steady growth should trade at a premium to the mid-cycle earnings multiple of one with more ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
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