May 2, 2022

In Defense Of Housing…


It is said that generals always fight the last war. Investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in groupthink, focused on narratives—completely ignoring facts. Nowhere is this more extreme than in the housing market. On one hand, you have everyone from homebuilders to the housing supply chain, to brokers saying that the market is Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 25, 2022

The Undertow…


Think back to the summer of 2019. Back before COVID and before oil traded with a negative integer. I remember foolishly trying to find a bottom in oil and gas producers. While, I am no specialist in energy, the prices seemed unhinged from reality. Multiple producers were trading at large discounts to stated PDP, even using crazy strip values. There were even a few Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 18, 2022

The New Levels…


For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire generation of producers and consumers came to expect that it would remain in that range. They’d sell excess inventory when it poked over a buck and fill warehouses in the sixties. That range defined Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 5, 2022

Market History Often Rhymes…


I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that it would lead to “price discovery.” A few months Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
March 22, 2022

Come Drink With Us At Berky…


I go to the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting, not to hear what the old guys have to say, but to see my friends in the value investing community. After 2 years of virtual Berky meetings (boring…), they’re going to do a live one and of course, we’re going to pre-game it. Come and join us on Friday April 29 from 5 PM to 7:30 Read More
Categories: Travels
Positions Mentioned: