January 25, 2023

On Inflecting Trends…


As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set of assumptions. Sometimes, it’s simply bad luck as some other macro trend supersedes my trend. Even when I get it wrong, there is often still some level of inflection—it’s just that the strength of Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
December 26, 2022

2022 Position Review


It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point of going through all this effort, if you cannot point to your record of continuously nailing major trends and investment themes. Even when I get one wrong, there’s a learning process involved in admitting Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR, LEE, Oil, Russia, SD, JOE, U-U CN
November 4, 2022

The Fed Is Fuct (Part 5)…


I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a question—in fact, it seems to be the only question in my mind as we find an event-path for “Project Zimbabwe” to re-accelerate. Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine that OPEC pulled back Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
October 16, 2022

Are DMs now EMs…???


The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk Read More
Positions Mentioned:
October 9, 2022

The Fed Is Fuct (Part 4)…


Part 1    Part 2    Part 3 The Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver is severely restricted. The Fed claims that they’re targeting a terminal rate of 4.6% for Fed Funds, but if they did that for any period of time, they’d only succeed in Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: