October 16, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 16, 2022
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The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk Read More
Categories: Investment Strategy
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October 9, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 9, 2022
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Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 The Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver is severely restricted. The Fed claims that they’re targeting a terminal rate of 4.6% for Fed Funds, but if they did that for any period of time, they’d only succeed in Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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October 5, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 5, 2022
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The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen Read More
Categories: Investment Strategy
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September 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at September 18, 2022
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Part 1 Part 2 Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like to focus on the Fed Funds Rate as the price of money also has a dramatic effect on risk assets. Oddly, we rarely focus on the actual banking function of the Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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The Fed Is Fuct (Part 5)…