May 2, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 2, 2022
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It is said that generals always fight the last war. Investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in groupthink, focused on narratives—completely ignoring facts. Nowhere is this more extreme than in the housing market. On one hand, you have everyone from homebuilders to the housing supply chain, to brokers saying that the market is Read More
Categories: Investments
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April 25, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 25, 2022
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Think back to the summer of 2019. Back before COVID and before oil traded with a negative integer. I remember foolishly trying to find a bottom in oil and gas producers. While, I am no specialist in energy, the prices seemed unhinged from reality. Multiple producers were trading at large discounts to stated PDP, even using crazy strip values. There were even a few Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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April 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 18, 2022
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For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire generation of producers and consumers came to expect that it would remain in that range. They’d sell excess inventory when it poked over a buck and fill warehouses in the sixties. That range defined Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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April 5, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 5, 2022
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I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that it would lead to “price discovery.” A few months Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
The Fed Is Fuct…