February 24, 2020

Extreme Complacency…


A few years back, I read an incredible white paper regarding investor complacency in the final weeks leading up to the First World War. Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated, global powers were trading demands, with the threat of war and investors didn’t care. As the crisis heated up and the armies began to mobilize, investors still were in a fantasy world. Back then, bonds were ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 18, 2020

Is PE Having Its WeWork Moment…???


For the better part of a decade, institutional investors have redeemed capital from active strategies and dumped it into Private Equity (PE). What’s the benefit of PE for allocators? You get to have levered equity returns without the volatility of actually owning public equities. Unlike stocks that often fluctuate wildly, PE is marked-to-model (M-T-M), hence quarterly volatility is minimal. Then, when there’s a liquidity ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 6, 2020

Giga-Stupidity Has No Limits…


Don’t worry, this isn’t another detailed article on Tesla (TSLAQ – USA). I’ve permanently sworn those off. As far as I’m concerned, there are two camps of investors; those who think it’s a fraud and those who aren’t very good at math. However, that doesn’t mean that Tesla cannot be a good long or short at the right moments in time—yeah, I know, hypocrisy; ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 2, 2020

Tankers Are Tanking….


Yeah, I know. The past few weeks have been miserable for tanker longs. As a good friend keeps reminding me, “Tankers take the escalator up and the elevator down.” He should know, as he’s been investing in shipping since long before I was born. At moments like this, I like to analyze what has changed and see if the thesis has been altered. Let’s ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DHT, EURN, STNG, TNK
January 27, 2020

Exiting Stage Left…


Two months ago, I wrote about Stage Stores (SSI – USA) and its planned evolution from failing department store chain into an off-price retailer named Gordmans. My logic was that you had a free look at what happened over the next few quarters as the plan evolved. As I wrote at the time; For me, this is a trade, not an investment. If you ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SSI
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