October 13, 2019

Shipping Is All About Upside Leverage…


Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders, IMO2020 would likely lead to further supply disruption and shipping is a leveraged play on geopolitical volatility (it was pretty obvious that Trump was going to keep causing chaos), hence you wanted to be long ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
October 2, 2019

Getting Ready For The Stock Market Crash…


It is something of a tradition amongst market commentators to make bold stock market calls because they gain you notoriety if you get it right. Over here at AiC, I don’t particularly care what people think. I’m here to make money—that’s it. Therefore, I’ve refrained from big market calls—particularly as I have no real edge in guessing where an index of a few hundred ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 25, 2019

Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…


Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country.  In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami. Roughly a year ago, I noticed that Miami property prices started to decline after a two or three-year period ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 24, 2019

On Getting Antero Wrong…


I pride myself in being a contrarian. When someone tells me that something positively cannot happen, I immediately wonder what security is mispriced if there’s even a 1% chance it could happen. Often, the securities I’m long are unloved, unpopular and downright hated. When I speak at idea dinners, I’m quite used to people showing a visceral sense of revulsion, followed by pity on ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
September 20, 2019

Are Trump’s Incentives About To Change…???


Three weeks ago, I did the unforgivable and waded into US politics. I apologize, but I am about to do so again. Fortunately for all of us, I’ll keep my thoughts specifically to the stock market. Say what you will about Trump, he has had only one goal for the past three years; pump the hell out of the stock market. He tweets at ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
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