Fascinating about the trend in government debt. Does the US debt include state and municipal debt as well? and the bigger problem is social security entitlements.
However, my real question is what are the figures for Canada? and where does it fit in your analysis.
I do not believe that the US debt metric in my last post includes state and municipal debt. Unfortunately, no two studies every include all the respective data, hence it’s hard to make apples to apples types of comparisons with other countries. I do not have the proper Canadian numbers in front of me here in Beijing. That said, Canada is not in as bad of shape as we are from a debt perspective when you add in all the outstanding and unfunded liabilities that we have. They export a lot of commodities and I think they will be better off because of that. However, I don’t want anyone to think that Canada doesn’t have serious issues either. I own a lot of Canadian Dollars because I own so many companies that trade in Canada. I am fine with that for now.
Just read your post “the trend is your friend.” Seems like your always traveling. Asia is amazing! I travelled there last summer, stopped in a few countries. Vietnam was probably one of the fastest growing and developing countries that I visited. I wish I was able to go back there again this summer.
Enjoy your trip. Send us some good information! 🙂
I am always traveling. I’ve found that you cannot do real research unless you have ‘your boots on the ground.’ You can read all you want, but nothing substitutes for your own impressions of a country or company. Those who sit around on Wall Street writing research reports are really missing out–and likely not well informed either. Vietnam is on our short list of countries to visit while here.
Since you like GROW what do you think of BX? Lots of private assets under management.
I’m assuming you’ll say GROW has fairly fixed overheads whereas costs for BX are harder to quantify.
I really don’t know much about BX. I just feel that GROW is cheap compared to their assets under management, has a rock solid balance sheet and has the wind at their back in terms of their funds being focused on commodities and emerging markets. If their assets increase either through performance or inflows in assets, the business will do very well. Blackstone is a different animal. They need performance fees to really shine. It’s also quite large so you need very sizable changes in their business in dollar terms to really see the business grow. A few billion dollars increase in AUM at grow will make me a very happy hedgie…. It will take tens of billions of change in AUM to move the needle much at BX. That said, from a 30 second look at BX, it doesn’t seem too expensive based on book value. .
Do you intend to create a permium paid subscription service where you tell readers what you are buying before you post on the main site? If you are, how can I sign up for it?
I hope you are kidding… I REALLY do… I’m not even sure if what you propose is legal.
To start with, I enjoy writing for this site. I find it useful to put my thoughts on paper. The last thing I would ever want to do is to deal with a publishing schedule or track down someone’s expired credit card number. That would make something enjoyable into a job. I already have a real job, I do not need another.
I built this site because I wanted to create a community of like minded people. There are 50,000 little companies in the world and there is no way I can possibly follow them all. I have been very successful over the years using my investment strategy. My hope is that if readers like the sorts of companies that I am writing about, they will go out looking for similar companeis and share them with me. One good stock idea is worth millions. I could not make that much in a lifetime of selling internet subscriptions, nor would I get to meet all the fascinating people I have already met through this site.
More importantly, this site allows me to put my own ideas down and let others criticize them. If I am wrong about an investment or a theme, I want to know about it before it becomes an expensive mistake. This is the reason why I have the ‘Ask Kuppy’ section. There are no bad questions. If you have thought of something, it’s possible that I have missed it.
There are plenty of guys on the internet who will sell you stock adivce. That’s not what I’m trying to do here.