10/09/2012
December 3, 2017
09/23/2012
December 3, 2017

09/28/2012

I’m currently in Chicago, on the home stretch towards Miami. Haven’t been home since April….


Have you ever heard of or know who is behind these guys?  http://seekingalpha.com/author/infitialis/articles

They started publishing on seeking alpha in August and have crushed six stocks so far within 1-2 days of publishing.  I’ve never seen anything like this – its getting rediculous. 

Not really sure who they are, but they sure are efficient. Anyone out there know who they are?


Kuppy,

I have no opinion on what’s going to happen with the yen vs. the USD. I’m just starting to understand individual companies. Judging entire economies is way beyond me at this point!
That being said, there’s a lot of cheap Japanese stocks out there right now. I haven’t invested in any of them though because I’m afraid the Yen might reverse its current course and any equity gains would be destroyed by currency losses.However, it hit me when I read your last Ask Kuppy post when you said you currently have a Yen short: If I can short the yen while simultaneously going long individual Japanese securities, I can have, net, no Yen currency exposure (at least in theory).

Any advice on whether this a good idea or not, and what would be the best way to do it as an individual/non-institutional investor? Is there an ETF I can use? Would that ETF work in the classic way of a short position (where you get the proceeds up front) so you could do a real, full no currency exposure position in a Japanese company?

Thanks! And excellent blog!

This is a very easy trade to put on using a broker like Interactive Brokers, which my fund uses. I have no strong opinion on if it’s a good strategy however. Remember, capital goes to Japan to die. Unless that changes, I wouldn’t have an interest in investing there.


Caterpillar cuts its forecasts due to cut back in mining companies budgets.

Kuppy, I wanted you to be aware of this story, link attached, as I am wondering whether this will negatively impact EGD.  This does not seem to bode well for this space. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-24/caterpillar-cuts-2015-outlook-as-mining-spending-falls.html  

It certainly won’t help EGD, but I don’t think it hurts the company. In the end, this is a multi-year trend I’m playing, I’m really not concerned with what year companies finally decide to replace reserves—I simply know that it will eventually happen.


Hi Harris,
I’m curious how you feel about Titan’s expansion into buying European dealers over the past year? Do you feel it’s a wise move?

I don’t really have a strong opinion and it’s a small piece of the overall business. It seems that they just buy dealers that are for sale at low multiples. I guess they don’t care where they are. Overall, it’s probably fine.


Great article

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/african-and-mideast-business/mozambiques-currency-crushes-cashew-comeback/article4559882/

Kuppy—For you.

No one wants a strong currency, even Mozambique which needs to import almost everything to redo their infrastructure.


Kuppy, you go almost silent for a year. Then suddenly go back to nohrmal publishing. Why the change? Welcome Back!!

Go run a public company with over 70 employees and see how much time you have to write articles of interest. I’m back in North America this month and have a few free minutes while trying to catch flights—hence the normal publishing schedule.


Kuppy. I see that the largest shareholder of MERC just bought a whole lot more shares. Is this bullish?

It certainly isn’t bearish…. Lol


RE titan machinery. I looked at the cashflow statement and it does not look really good. The cash from operations has been pretty negative 3 consecutive years in a row. why is that?

They’re growing quickly and their working capital is ballooning as they grow. It’s not an issue in my mind.


Dear Kuppy,

Interesting article on farming. To restate your underlying assumption: the combination of population growth and the enhancement of diet from grain to protein (which uses a lot more grain than people would just eat), will cause food prices to increase rapidly as demand outstrips short/medium term supply. This I agree with.

The concern I have with this opportunity is the extent to which global food supplies are impacted by climate change. Jeremy Grantham has been banging this particular drum recently (see “Welcome to Dystopia!” at www.gmo.com). While I am not of the opinion that humans are contributing to climate change, I am willing to believe that the world is warming up and it will have a dramatic impact on the predictability of weather, and the crop yields of farming generally. Grantham does do a good job highlighting the likelihood that global weather is changing, whatever the underlying cause.

In other words, TITN’s recent quarter was impacted by the US drought this summer. I fear that this will become more common (or it will be floods next year, etc). You think junior miners are a bad business? Imagine farming when every year has extreme weather of one sort or another! 

There are two other ways I know to invest in farming without personally buying farmland, fyi:

– One (not available to US investors) is a private equity type opportunity, and can be found here: http://www.uk-farming.com/

– The other is Sprott Resource Corp (SCP.TOhttp://www.sprottresource.com/one-earth-farms-corp.aspx) which has farmland in its portfolio. However, I don’t care for the generous hedge-fund-style percentage of profit that the public company pays a private management company.

Finally, I wonder what governments will do if food inflation puts lots of starving people on the street. Will they (a) raise interest rates to slow the economy, raise unemployment, and Whip Inflation Now or (b) implement QE28 to attempt to grow the economy to the point where food becomes affordable by the masses? I’m going for (b), which takes us back to precious metals. So my favorite solution for the food inflation scenario is precious metals.

Thanks for publishing your thoughts, they are always interesting!

I post this for readers. I have no opinion on the two investment options that he speaks of. My preference remains TITN.