11/10/2012
December 3, 2017
10/17/2012
December 3, 2017

10/27/2012

It’s my last day in Ulaanbaatar, then I’m off to Hong Kong. So much to do, and so little time…


Kuppy, do you think that moving to Montana and investing in agriculture is a smart decision?

 

If you’re asking me, you should probably do a bit more research….

That said, it’s probably not a terrible choice and if it doesn’t pan out, I hear there’s a thriving meth industry to focus on….


Given the relatively high odds of a Dalio style, “ugly inflationary deleveraging”, do you plan to hold your non-gold related investments through such an episode (TITN, MERC, etc)? Is your timeframe on these inclusive of such an event? Or are you investing as if this episode is further out in the future than the value realization phase you expect on these?

For reference:
http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2012/09/bridgewater-on-ugly-inflationary.html

I would think that companies like TITN and MERC would do reasonably well in an inflationary phase.


Enjoyed the post, big fan of Jay Gould. If you haven’t read it, “Dark Genius of Wall Street: The Misunderstood Life of Jay Gould, King of the Robber Barons” is a fantastic book and one of my favorite.

It is one of my favorites as well. I definitely recommend it. Jay Gould was a genious.


You’ve mentioned your fav and Boart–but haven’t mentioned MDI. As a shareholder of Major Drilling wondering why this isn’t on your radar?

MDI is well run, but it is a commodity drilling company compared to EGD which does very specialized and unique drilling projects. MDI also has very little growth to it. I’d rather invest in the better managed companies like EGD. I would never want to own Boart for anything but a trade.


Your recent article on coal mentioned your visit to MMC. Not sure if you knew that MMC is listed in the US (MOGLF). There’s a write-up here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/459501-focus-on-mongolian-mining-corporation-mongolia-s-flagship-public-company

I know you are sworn to avoid mining companies, but readers might be interested!

I pass this link to readers as the article is very well written. Caveat Emptor.


Kuppy – there’s another article on Myanmar at http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/myanmars-bloody-war-in-the-shadows/50/

Guess Myanmar isn’t all good.


To the reader asking about railroads in Mongolia, I found lots of info quickly via Google:
(Note: Mongolia knows what it is doing!)

Info on Mongolia’s railroad expansion:
Mongolia Mining Company:
http://www.mmc.mn/projects-rail.html
Mongolia Railway:
http://www.mtz.mn/index.php?sel=newsmore&id=3&more=2
A 2009 over on Monglia infrastructure plans (great graphics):
http://www.unescap.org/ttdw/common/TIS/CorridorStudy/EGM_Uiwang/9.Mongolia_ppt.pdf

I post this for readers who want to learn more on the topic.


http://capitalistexploits.at/2012/10/myanmar-in-the-mix/

This is an article by my friends over at Capitalist Exploits. I post this for readers who are interested in Myanmar. Clearly, there’s a lot of research that people should be doing before piling into the country.


Since I sent you my last email a year and a half ago, I’ve moved to the forest capital of BC and ground zero of the mountain pine beetle epidemic. NBSK pulp primarily comes from pine. The supply of pine is about to decrease to 25% of current harvest levels over the next 3 years because of the MPB. Pulp mills are not located close enough to the areas that have spruce, hemlock and cedar to make it economically viable to truck in other sources of fibre to make NBSK.

My question is have you considered the implications of this macro economic reality in your NBSK analysis? And if so, how? I’d also like to recommend you take a look at the ridiculous investment opportunities in northern BC (mostly private).

Clearly pine beetle will reduce NBSK supply in the future. Fortunately for MERC, two of their three mills are in Germany. That said, I have not gotten too deeply into how this will all play out. I probably should.