02/02/2014
December 3, 2017
09/10/2013
December 3, 2017

12/12/2013

I am back in Miami and catching up on AIC. It’s been a long time since I responded publicly to questions. Privately, I have continued to answer questions in a timely way…


Thought you might be interested in this website if you haven’t seen it already: http://greedometer.com/ He tracks several of the same measures you mentioned in your recent post: margin debt, advisor sentiment, volatility (ignoring risks), but he’s more convinced of a near-term fall in equities.

I would be curious to get an update on Mongolia/BDSec and the macro factors you see affecting them. Thanks!

Interesting website. I don’t know if anyone can ever call a market top. Things will decline when the speculative impulse has run its course.

In terms of Mongolia, the economy is really heating up over the past two months. Ever since the country improved the foreign investor laws, we have really seen a flood of new investments announced and this has led to a real increase in the economy.


It seems that Bitcoin has many of the same desirable monetary properties as Gold. It is scarce, fungible, portable, divisible, and durable. In fact, it does much better than Gold in certain areas – it is much more easily divisible for small everyday transactions, and it is much, much more portable, able to be sent anywhere in the world in a matter of seconds or minutes, and for transaction fees that are measured in cents.
My main concern for Bitcoin’s future is the threat of a government crackdown. It seems plausible that Bitcoin could threaten power structures of the wealthy elites in the world, and it’s difficult to know exactly how and when the governments will react.

I am very interested to hear your opinion.

I’d rather have a currency that is backed by gold. Gold is something useful, that has a massive liquid market. Bitcoin has dropped 50% in a week. How can that be used as a currency? Currencies need to be stable. Even when gold has had 50% declines, it has usually taken months/years for it to happen, so it’s stable enough to base transactions upon it.


Hi Kuppy, haven’t seen a post in awhile and this is nice to see.

Any chance of a position update in the next few weeks, I.e on gold, etc.

Thanks

I think gold is undergoing some year-end tax-loss selling. I think it will be stronger in 2014. Most of the stuff that I have written about is tied to gold and commodities. If gold isn’t doing well, neither are the other stocks… This will change…


Surely you’ve seen this but too funny not to forward:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/11/fed-deflation-in-one-picture/

I almost forgot to breathe, I was laughing so hard. Folks, this is the only deflation that you will ever see from the Fed.


What are your thoughts on TITN at this time, at this price $14.5? Was the drop justified?

As long as ag prices are weak, so will TITN shares. I’d wait on this until I saw a rebound in ag prices. I’d also look very closely at some related party transactions that were pointed out to me by an AIC reader in regards to the relationship between the real estate owners of the centers and the company that operates the centers. Too many of the people in management/board of directors are also the owners of the real estate for my comfort.


Good news for Mongolian economy:

China’s Shenhua Agrees to Buy 1 Billion Tons of Mongolian Coal
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-29/china-s-shenhua-agrees-to-buy-1-billion-tons-of-mongolian-coal.html

Very good news for Mongolia. At today’s prices, that’s about $50 billion of sales coming out of a $10 billion GDP economy (over 20 years however).


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/10/15/japan-mascot-causes-stir-with-ill-chosen-name/?mod=MW_home_latest_news

This is old news at this point, but I should point out that I have no affiliation with FuKuppy. Still hilarious.


Kuppy,

As someone new to international investing, is there a set of minimum criteria that have to be met before you will consider investing in a company listed on an overseas exchange?

Same rules as investing in any developed market’s exchange. Learn as much as you can–then keep learning. No seperate rules, but avoid markets that are known for chronic fraud (read China). Some markets are simply in the “too hard” pile.


It was very good call when you sold TITN back in January 25. Do you thing it is a good buy at almost half that price??

I’d wait for more clarity on the related party transactions.


Kuppy,

I keep hearing about the booming Real Estate market of Miami. My curious nature drove me to troll through the Miami-Dade County Mortgage data base and I come across lots of instances of people borrowing the significant amounts of money to buy in.
It seems like the Miami boom is heavily supported by lots of cheap money and wide open lending standards (I’m not discounting the foreign buyers).

I even came across a mortgage provided by ProspectMortgage – they financed 97% of a $168,000 property (the most interesting part is the Chairman of Prospect is the former Fannie Mae CEO- Michael Williams).

It seems like all the old lending tricks are back in full gear.

You are on the ground in Miami (sometime) – am I misinterpreting what my anecdotal data?

Property market is going bonkers here. Not sure how much longer it can last, but if you print enough money, it tends to go into strange places. Knowing what I know about how stuff is financed, I’m sure they’re up to all sorts of funny tricks.