Hey Kup. I wonder if you would post a transcript of your speech “Crazy Shit CEOs Have Lied To Me About.” ? While I would love to see you deliver it in person, I won’t be able to attend. But a transcript would be most enjoyable to me.
Sorry, I assume it’s a bit too off-color for posterity and I don’t want to get sued by pointing out what these guys lied about.
I recently came across a great writeup you did on VIC for EMGC. Stock is up more than 50% in the 2 months after you posted. Why didn’t you post it on your blog also? Seemed like a worthwhile thesis.
Valueinvestorsclub.com is a membership only group where you have to post 2 unique ideas a year to maintain your membership. That means I can’t post them anywhere else. In terms of this site, I genuinely worry that if I post something illiquid, the stock will move irrationally due to the number of readers here. How does that help anyone? As a result, I have avoided speaking about illiquid stocks. This is unfortunate because these sorts of stocks often offer the best upside.
Would you express a bullish view on STNG through long-term calls? Say Jan 2021, or prefer shorter 2020 horizon (Jan, April)? Thanks!
I’m sorry, but I cannot give personal advice. I mostly own common.
I read your Altisource comment and agree. I am also concerned about the economy. If the stock market gets hit, won’t the stock drop anyway?
In the short run, a stock can trade at literally any price. There are no rules to the stock market. This is what creates opportunities. If Altisource drops, I’ll average down as long as the thesis holds. Yes, I’ll be down a bit but who cares? If you’re worried that the stock drops in the short term, you’re playing too big.
Questions….If you think the global economy is going to tank, then why are you long the tanker stocks?
I think what’s going on with fundamentals, IMO2020 and geopolitical volatility will trump negative GDP growth. We’ll find out soon…
STNG is another winner for Kuppy! i’ve had a good long look at STNG, and love the thesis. slightly uncomfortable with the family of the CEO doing all the leasing, admin, etc. i don’t like related party transactions. how do you get yourself comfortable with this? or does the upside case just swamp the concerns?
I’m not happy about it. They’ve been consistently extracting value from the company for years. However, it’s fully disclosed and is what it is. They also own a whole lot of stock, so I don’t expect them to do anything too crazy. STNG is simply better than the alternatives. This isn’t something I want to put away for decades, but on the way up, no one else has better upside leverage and fund flows will go towards the most liquid player.
Hey could you suggest some news sources you trust ? I like blogs like yours . I’m a 29 year old investor trying to not lose my shirt when this farcical economy comes crashing down
I have a few links up on my site under “Kuppy’s Daily Reading List” for guys who I think do great work. Start there.
Kuppy, great play short the weed names. Now that you covered, are you looking to go long here?
Harris, I know it must have been hard to admit you got Antero wrong. But look at it now. I read a lot and most people never fess up.
I try my best to be intellectually honest on this site. I have nothing to sell and use this site to help stress-test my ideas and source new ones. If I pretended there were no losses, I think I would get a lot less guys taking their time to offer helpful feedback.
In terms of Antero, in my experience, when I realize I got it wrong, I just get out. I almost never wait for a recovery in the share price. If the thesis isn’t working, I move on. Stock is down over a third since I sold a few weeks ago. While I took a nice sized loss on that one, there’s no reason to keep losing money by being stubborn.
Every crash I have seen or read about there was a clear speculative excess in some sector. Nifty fifty large caps selling at p/e of 50, tech where the whole index doubled in a year, real estate where people were flipping houses that weren’t even built yet. In what sector is the excess?
Almost every damn sector this time. There’s like $15 trillion of bonds with negative yields. The country of Greece is now getting paid to borrow money. If you don’t see that this is a speculative excess, then I don’t know what to say….
Hey Kuppy, just curious if you had seen any interesting ways to play your most recent Miami property crash theme.
I own a whole lot of ASPS. Think that’s how to play it.
Hi Kuppy had a question on all these crypto miners. Seems crypto currencies have gone up in value this year (ignoring the selloff last few days) but the stocks of the crypto miners haven’t (Hive etc). Do you have an outlook in this space for the currencies and their publicly traded miners?
Sorry, I know nothing about this sector
Kuppy, I work at a fund that sees things like you do. We see a crash coming but no one pays you fees to be in cash. We aren’t allowed to short. How do you deal with that yourself?
Central Bank stimulus has destroyed the markets ability to price risk. I get similar questions from many friends who also have no idea how to be fiduciaries for their clients (which means not being exposed to the coming collapse) but also fulfilling their fund’s mandates to be mostly all invested because no one knows when the crash comes. I have no good advice here. I’ve taken down my exposure on the long side by as much as I can. Every remaining position needs to fit into EACH of the following characteristics; minimal or zero GDP sensitivity, is a “Long Short,” has no funding risk if the capital markets shut down for a few years, has a catalyst that is currently playing out so that it leads to FOMO. It’s a high bar to step over and I don’t have a lot of positions. Every day, I wonder if I should cut back the exposure even further. Now isn’t the time to be aggressive on the long side. Stocks don’t seem to drop either, so it’s hard to be too aggressive on the short side either—though I have more shorts now than at any time in the last decade. Hope this helps. It’s just hard out there. I’ve done this for almost 20 years now. Sometimes, it’s just too hard and the trick is to look for layups like shipping and do very little else. No one says you have to be invested today. There will always be better opportunities at some point in the future. The trick now is to take the layups and not get hurt doing something dumb.
Kuppy, you still short USD?
I booked it for a small net loss. Made some on CAD and lost a bit on EUR. I just want less exposure to what is about to happen. I still think the Dollar goes lower. There are far too many Dollar bulls, yet the Dollar does not go up.