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December 3, 2018
Published by Kuppy at December 3, 2018
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I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes have also increased rapidly. Meanwhile, pipeline bottlenecks have slowed down the pace of new supply Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
November 18, 2018
Published by Kuppy at November 18, 2018
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In the two decades that I’ve been investing in stocks, one of my favorite strategies is to follow very successful investors and wait for the opportunity to buy one of their holdings at a sizable discount to what they paid—particularly if the thesis seems to be playing out. With that in mind, it is worth noting that Carl Icahn is one of the greatest Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SandRidge
November 4, 2018
Published by Kuppy at November 4, 2018
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I wrote about Teekay Offshore (TOO – USA) on January 1, 2018 following the end of tax loss selling season. At the time, my thesis was that reported numbers were a mess of 1-time events that investors couldn’t follow, yet new growth projects were coming online and a more stabilized cash flow stream would evolve. In the interim, you were paying about 5-times stabilized Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TOO
October 25, 2018
Published by Kuppy at October 25, 2018
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On October 11, I noted that “…I have booked all of my Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) Jan 2019 250/175 put spreads after owning them for almost a year, at a reference price of $255 compared to a reference price of $320 when I first wrote about them. While I am certain that Tesla collapses in the near future, all evidence seems to show that they’ve Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
October 23, 2018
Published by Kuppy at October 23, 2018
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During every credit cycle, there is one national lender that all other lenders try to emulate. This is because a combination of rapid asset growth and elevated net interest margins leads to rapid earnings growth and share price appreciation. Unfortunately, in order to do that, you have to make a lot of risky loans and pretend they’re totally safe. Remember Countrywide Financial? They were Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: OZK, JOE
October 11, 2018
Published by Kuppy at October 11, 2018
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Last week, US interest rates completed a multi-year reversal pattern and broke out over a three-decade downtrend line. I believe that interest rates move in generational cycles and the chart pattern has now confirmed a long-term trend towards higher interest rates. This trend is across the entire US duration curve and appears to have been followed by similar moves in many other global benchmarks. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Aimia, Viemed, Tesla, Tidewater
October 3, 2018
Published by Kuppy at October 3, 2018
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Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it would never come back. As I noted in an update in July, shale isn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW ESV NE
September 10, 2018
Published by Kuppy at September 10, 2018
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Just over three months ago, I wrote about Iron Bridge Resources (IBR – Canada) and noted that with a hostile bid in place at 75 cents, you could buy it at 74 cents and have a situation with minimal downside and quite a lot of upside—especially as my good friend, Josh Young, was calling the shots. My theory was that either; another buyer would Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: IBR CN
July 27, 2018
Published by Kuppy at July 27, 2018
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Ever since Air Canada announced the termination of their Aeroplan agreement with Aimia (AIM – Canada) last year, I have suspected that this was a prelude to them eventually acquiring Aeroplan. I believed this due to simple math. It will cost Air Canada $200 to $400 per cardmember to organically build their own loyalty program. Aeroplan has 5 million cardmembers, hence trying to build Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN