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January 7, 2021

Everyone Back In The Pool…


Yesterday, January the 6th, a motley band of MAGA, Antifa and what appears to be a Minotaur, entered Congress uninvited. They had no plan, no leadership, few allies and no clear agenda. They were united by anger and a desire to fix something that was obviously broken—yet impossible to fix without the buy-in of entrenched special interests. After spending a few hours pissing off ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
January 6, 2021

What The QS???


Over the past few quarters, I have written about various Event-Driven set-ups. This is because mismatches between buyers and sellers cluster around these events and drive share prices. If you’re waiting for fundamentals to matter, you may eventually be proven right, but you had better be willing to wait. Event-Driven situations are immediate. Why have Event-Driven moves become so much more accentuated lately? I ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: QS
October 2, 2020

On Inflection Investing…


Over the years, I have spent a lot of time talking about “inflection investments,” but have never really given a playbook for how to approach this genre of investments.  Given the number of questions I have received about various investments, clearly, I should have put out some guidance to invest by. What is an inflection investment? This is a situation where some dynamic piece ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
June 24, 2020

Ready For The Re-Bal???


I frequently hear investors say that “there’s no such thing as free money in the markets.” I’d argue that those people are simply lazy. Once a year, the Russell Indexes re-balance. It’s rules-based and as the indexes and closet indexers get larger, the percentage of a company’s float involved gets larger. In many cases, 20% to 40% of a company’s total float changes hands ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: TNK
June 19, 2020

Stocks Only Go Up…


I have always run my book with two distinct buckets. One bucket is focused on “global micro trends,” which means that I find thematic inflections in global markets and position myself in small and mid-cap names that are likely to benefit. This is the fun stuff that I like to write about. My other bucket, which I rarely write about, is focused on event-driven, tactical ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
March 23, 2020

Time To Buy Stuff…


It’s said that you want to buy when others are fearful. It sure seems that investors are currently losing their minds. Look, I get it, there’s a virus and there’s a good chance that a lot of us will get it. There’s conflicting data about the overall mortality rate which makes it all worse; especially as its origins in China are terrifying. All sorts ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
November 21, 2019

My Discovery While On Vacation…


I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in my weeks away from the screens. I believe that most serious investors are smart enough to buy cheap stocks—it’s the harder “other stuff” that separates those who excel in this industry from everyone else. I ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, STNG, SD
June 28, 2019

“Long-Shorts”


Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free around here. I’d rather focus my energy on esoteric pockets of the world that are ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, AR, SD
July 4, 2018

Tesla Is The New Theranos (With A Curious Nazi Twist)


I originally started following Tesla (TSLA – USA) as I felt it was a structurally unprofitable business nearing a cash crunch as hundreds of competing products were about to enter the market. As I’ve studied Tesla more closely, I’ve come to realize that Elon Musk appears to be running a Ponzi Scheme disguised as an auto-manufacturer; where he has to keep unveiling new products, ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
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