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October 16, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 16, 2022
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk
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October 5, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 5, 2022
The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen
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January 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at January 18, 2022
I’ve been pretty clear on why oil is going higher. If you want a refresher, click here. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil is the wrecking ball that will crush every CUSIP, because the Fed will eventually panic. Look at bonds. They’re getting smashed along with equities today. This will blow up the
Read MorePositions Mentioned: Oil
September 13, 2021
Published by Kuppy at September 13, 2021
Investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often mental. Who cares if it is at 90% of fair value?? Recycle your capital. Why are you in a business with deteriorating numbers?? Recycle your capital. So what if it’s cheap, there’s no catalyst?? Recycle your
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March 12, 2021
Published by Kuppy at March 12, 2021
Ever since GameStop (GME – USA) pulled off a Melvinator, I have had various short vol GME option trades on. Often, this was some combination of deep out of the money (OTM) strike puts and a smattering of even further OTM calls. Yes, I know I said that shorting “Project Zimbabwe” is suicide and maybe I need to re-learn that lesson myself, but I’ll
Read MorePositions Mentioned: GME
January 7, 2021
Published by Kuppy at January 7, 2021
Yesterday, January the 6th, a motley band of MAGA, Antifa and what appears to be a Minotaur, entered Congress uninvited. They had no plan, no leadership, few allies and no clear agenda. They were united by anger and a desire to fix something that was obviously broken—yet impossible to fix without the buy-in of entrenched special interests. After spending a few hours pissing off
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January 6, 2021
Published by Kuppy at January 6, 2021
Over the past few quarters, I have written about various Event-Driven set-ups. This is because mismatches between buyers and sellers cluster around these events and drive share prices. If you’re waiting for fundamentals to matter, you may eventually be proven right, but you had better be willing to wait. Event-Driven situations are immediate. Why have Event-Driven moves become so much more accentuated lately? I
Read MorePositions Mentioned: QS
October 2, 2020
Published by Kuppy at October 2, 2020
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time talking about “inflection investments,” but have never really given a playbook for how to approach this genre of investments. Given the number of questions I have received about various investments, clearly, I should have put out some guidance to invest by. What is an inflection investment? This is a situation where some dynamic piece
Read MorePositions Mentioned: EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
June 24, 2020
Published by Kuppy at June 24, 2020
I frequently hear investors say that “there’s no such thing as free money in the markets.” I’d argue that those people are simply lazy. Once a year, the Russell Indexes re-balance. It’s rules-based and as the indexes and closet indexers get larger, the percentage of a company’s float involved gets larger. In many cases, 20% to 40% of a company’s total float changes hands
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TNK
