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June 24, 2020

Ready For The Re-Bal???


I frequently hear investors say that “there’s no such thing as free money in the markets.” I’d argue that those people are simply lazy. Once a year, the Russell Indexes re-balance. It’s rules-based and as the indexes and closet indexers get larger, the percentage of a company’s float involved gets larger. In many cases, 20% to 40% of a company’s total float changes hands ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: TNK
June 19, 2020

Stocks Only Go Up…


I have always run my book with two distinct buckets. One bucket is focused on “global micro trends,” which means that I find thematic inflections in global markets and position myself in small and mid-cap names that are likely to benefit. This is the fun stuff that I like to write about. My other bucket, which I rarely write about, is focused on event-driven, tactical ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
March 23, 2020

Time To Buy Stuff…


It’s said that you want to buy when others are fearful. It sure seems that investors are currently losing their minds. Look, I get it, there’s a virus and there’s a good chance that a lot of us will get it. There’s conflicting data about the overall mortality rate which makes it all worse; especially as its origins in China are terrifying. All sorts ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
November 21, 2019

My Discovery While On Vacation…


I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in my weeks away from the screens. I believe that most serious investors are smart enough to buy cheap stocks—it’s the harder “other stuff” that separates those who excel in this industry from everyone else. I ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, STNG, SD
June 28, 2019

“Long-Shorts”


Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free around here. I’d rather focus my energy on esoteric pockets of the world that are ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, AR, SD
July 4, 2018

Tesla Is The New Theranos (With A Curious Nazi Twist)


I originally started following Tesla (TSLA – USA) as I felt it was a structurally unprofitable business nearing a cash crunch as hundreds of competing products were about to enter the market. As I’ve studied Tesla more closely, I’ve come to realize that Elon Musk appears to be running a Ponzi Scheme disguised as an auto-manufacturer; where he has to keep unveiling new products, ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: TSLA
May 17, 2017

Performance Pressures Lead To Underperformance…


A few weeks back, I was catching up with a friend of mine who runs a very successful high yield fund and naturally, the conversation turned to the markets. Me: Congrats on yet another great year in 2016. Him: Yeah, we beat our benchmark, but I’m sort of bummed. 2016 was the year we really should have killed it. They just gave away money in fixed ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: none
October 9, 2014

So Why Are You Public Again?


Now, I’m the sort of guy who likes to ask taxi drivers for recommendations—everything from best street food to favorite bars—especially when I’m visiting a new city. So, as we piled into the taxi from the airport, I asked the driver for some recommendations. “Don’t leave your hotel—it isn’t safe.” Ok, we’d already been warned the same by pretty much everyone we knew, yet ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
July 22, 2011

Opt-In


How do you make money in a boring range-bound market? Well, you certainly need to be resourceful. Finance guys have given us lots of toys to play with; the trick is to know which ones to use and how to use them correctly. I haven’t spoken much about options, but they are a key weapon in my arsenal. Longtime readers of this site will ... Read More
Positions Mentioned:
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