28 results found for: project zimbabwe
Every few years, the stock market seems to be swamped by a “100-year storm.” Investors put their hands up and say “no one could have ever predicted this,” despite there being obvious clues that some sort of an event was imminent. Remember back to the 2000 internet crash when it was obvious that the tech bubble would eventually deflate. The surprise wasn’t that the Read More
The great thing about investing is that no one ever forces you to put on a position. I prefer to wait with excess liquidity and find those amazing opportunities that seem to pop up a few times a year—remember how they gave away the store at the lows in March? That doesn’t mean I don’t do plenty of Event-Driven trading as it’s an Alpha-rich, Read More
Lots of people seem to have finance blogs these days. Everyone has opinions on the markets. Once a year, we add up the score and see who got it right. 2019 was something of a whiff for me—I made money, but it was a soft year. Thankfully, I broke out of my slump and knocked the cover off the ball during 2020. While I Read More
Yesterday, January the 6th, a motley band of MAGA, Antifa and what appears to be a Minotaur, entered Congress uninvited. They had no plan, no leadership, few allies and no clear agenda. They were united by anger and a desire to fix something that was obviously broken—yet impossible to fix without the buy-in of entrenched special interests. After spending a few hours pissing off Read More
Ever since GameStop (GME – USA) pulled off a Melvinator, I have had various short vol GME option trades on. Often, this was some combination of deep out of the money (OTM) strike puts and a smattering of even further OTM calls. Yes, I know I said that shorting “Project Zimbabwe” is suicide and maybe I need to re-learn that lesson myself, but I’ll Read More
Over the past few months, bonds have had one of their sharpest selloffs in history. This should be no surprise. JPOW and Yellen have been quite clear that they intend to create epic levels of inflation and shred bondholders. History is replete with paper currencies getting debauched. As a result, I expect that our clueless band of inflationeers will succeed beyond their wildest dreams—especially Read More
For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect at scale. In fact, many of the Ponzi Sector companies seem to Read More
One of the great benefits of writing this blog is that I get hundreds of emails each month. These emails give me a unique perspective into what others see and an insight into how they run their books. With that in mind, I’d like to explore an odd concept in finance—investors’ political views getting in the way of them making money. As our world Read More
On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…
Let me throw this out there; the investing game is mind-numbingly easy. You buy good businesses for less than fair value. Sure, we can all argue about fair value. There are always surprises in the future trajectory of a business. This game has some wrinkles and drama, but at the most basic level, it’s easy. In fact, done correctly, it only involves a handful Read More