August 19, 2019

Shipping Update


I have now written a number of bullish pieces on the shipping sector (article 1, article 2, article 3). My previous articles speculated that a confluence of factors would mark a bottom and lead to a rather impressive recovery in the sector. Those articles were all theoretical, speculating on a recover. Now, we’re finally starting to see dramatically increased charter rates. At the same ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
August 13, 2019

The Year Is 2030…


The year is 2030 and the S&P just broke the 1 million level following an algo-induced short squeeze after Trump tweets, “President Ivanka headed to China to negotiate an even better deal for USA. Chinese seriously intimidated because she’s hot.” It has now been 12 years, a trade deal is nowhere in sight and despite a global economic collapse, the market still rallies 2% ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
August 12, 2019

Altisource


A few weeks back, I wrote about “long-shorts.” These are companies that see their businesses improve when the overall economy deteriorates. I’m increasingly convinced that we’re about to see a real doozy of a recession here in America. It will likely be exaggerated by whatever happens in Asia. While shorting gets all the attention, I would much rather own businesses that do well when ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
August 5, 2019

If He’s Tweeting It…


About a year ago, I was watching Real Vision (highly recommend subscribing if you aren’t already subscribed) and saw an interview with Kyle Bass where he made a very prescient observation. Eventually, President Trump will discover that the President has the power to wield tariffs against any country as he wishes. Then all hell will break loose. It really was one of those “aha ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DXY
July 31, 2019

Azerbaijan


Three months ago, I had the opportunity to speak at Isaac Schwartz’s, annual VALUEx conference, held this year in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. Even more fortuitously, I pounded the table on shipping stocks, right before they inflected dramatically higher. (So far, so good). I had meant to write about my experiences in Azerbaijan, but then life happened. However, I’d be negligent if I ... Read More
Categories: Travels
Positions Mentioned:
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