April 21, 2020

It’s Getting Strange Out There…


I’m one of those guys who’s always believed that certain truths are sacrosanct. Interest rates would always stay positive, commodities would always be worth something and the US government would pretend to care about the deficit. Over the past few years, I feel like the hedgie who’s learned that the Easter Bunny doesn’t really exist. Honestly, a lot of what I accepted as being ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 20, 2020

Investing In The Age Of COVID…


Four weeks ago, the stock market was in free-fall and I made the point that “if you aren’t buying stock down here, you’re simply doing it all wrong.” I fortuitously published it on the day that the market bottomed. Looking back at my call to “buy stuff,” the Fed did exactly what I expected by unleashing an alphabet-soup of acronym programs—forcing people to buy ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 13, 2020

Cookin’ With Gas…


Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
April 9, 2020

Balance Sheet Evolution…


Last week, we got news that Carnival (CCL – USA) became the first of many large corporations to aggressively dilute shareholders after a decade of reckless financial engineering. Before discussing this malfeasance of capital structure management, let’s rewind three decades. Excluding brief periods of exuberance at the end of the 1920s and 1960s most public companies historically were staid organizations—they grew a few percent ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 5, 2020

“Project Zimbabwe”


Roughly a month ago on the afternoon of Sunday, March 8th, Fed Chairman Powell had an emergency staff meeting. Powell: I want the nuttiest money printing plan ever. What action plans do we have that are prepared and ready to initiate? Admin: Well, we have this one named “GFC 2.0” Powell: Sounds tame and sedate. Won’t impress anyone. Admin: What about this one named ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Gold
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