December 4, 2019

Inflation Is Coming…

Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 29, 2019

ESG = Excessive Share-price Growth

Two months ago, something rather monumental happened, which seems to have been lost to the news-cycle. In a world starved for yield, a company with trailing twelve month free cash flow of $527 million (cash flow from operations – maintenance cap-ex) and net debt of only $593 million could not re-finance debt due in 2022. Sure, the company’s end-markets are currently a little soft ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: BTU
November 25, 2019

Tankers Keep Trending Better…

For my entire career, I have closely watched the Global Micro Trends I’m invested in (I have a new term and I intend to abuse it—sorry). I have to be honest, quite often, the trend sort of peters out. It’s often still a financial victory, just not what I had hoped for. For instance, let’s look at my investment in the Greek ETF (GREK ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DSSI, NNA, STNG, TNK
November 22, 2019

Stage Stores Evolves…

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, the guys leading Stage Stores (SSI – USA) would clarify as clinically insane. Why did anyone think that consolidating a bunch of struggling department store chains in rural America was a good business idea? A quick look at the stock chart over the past decade would ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SSI
November 21, 2019

My Discovery While On Vacation…

I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in my weeks away from the screens. I believe that most serious investors are smart enough to buy cheap stocks—it’s the harder “other stuff” that separates those who excel in this industry from everyone else. I ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, STNG, SD
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