Please click on a button below to jump straight to that category.
April 13, 2020

Cookin’ With Gas…

Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
January 22, 2019

The View From ICR

Over the years, I’ve spent less time talking to CEO and more time learning about industries. Let’s face it CEOs lie (compulsively). They only tell you the good news—or what they think you want to hear. If I have a strategy question, maybe I’ll let them humor me for 20 minutes about their 5-year plan. However, if I want to really learn something, I Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
December 10, 2018

Taking Advantage Of The Energy Washout…

One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD