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April 13, 2020
Published by Kuppy at April 13, 2020
Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SD
January 22, 2019
Published by Kuppy at January 22, 2019
Over the years, I’ve spent less time talking to CEO and more time learning about industries. Let’s face it CEOs lie (compulsively). They only tell you the good news—or what they think you want to hear. If I have a strategy question, maybe I’ll let them humor me for 20 minutes about their 5-year plan. However, if I want to really learn something, I
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December 10, 2018
Published by Kuppy at December 10, 2018
One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
The View From ICR