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May 7, 2020

Takin’ My Foot Off The Gas…


When I add a position, my first question is always the same; is there a way to hedge this? To most people, a hedge means buying puts or shorting an index, both of which have carrying costs and a certain drag on performance. Furthermore, you often learn that it didn’t quite hedge things the way you thought it would. I have lost track of ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
April 13, 2020

Cookin’ With Gas…


Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
June 28, 2019

“Long-Shorts”


Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free around here. I’d rather focus my energy on esoteric pockets of the world that are ... Read More
Positions Mentioned: ASPS, AR, SD
May 21, 2019

Time To Sell Something…


Back in December, when anything with a CUSIP was getting dumped by hedge funds facing liquidations, I repeatedly made the point (here, here, here) that it was the time to buy—particularly those assets that were at the epicenter of those hedge fund liquidations. Now, five months later, with most securities having recovered quite nicely, I want to remind you of how dark it was ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD, STNG, TSLA
December 3, 2018

Who’s Bullish On Natural Gas??


I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes have also increased rapidly. Meanwhile, pipeline bottlenecks have slowed down the pace of new supply ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
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