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January 24, 2022
Published by Kuppy at January 24, 2022
Rewind the clock almost two years… Analyst: For fuk’s sake Kuppy. Stop buying more Shitridge. Me: …but it’s sooo incredibly cheap. Analyst: Who cares? You said that five dollars ago. It wrecked our 2019 and it’s already wrecking our 2020. Me: Our only edge in this game, is to buy more when it transitions from cheap to downright stupid. It’s rare, but occasionally, something
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SD
April 13, 2020
Published by Kuppy at April 13, 2020
Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SD
November 21, 2019
Published by Kuppy at November 21, 2019
I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in my weeks away from the screens. I believe that most serious investors are smart enough to buy cheap stocks—it’s the harder “other stuff” that separates those who excel in this industry from everyone else. I
Read MorePositions Mentioned: ASPS, STNG, SD
June 28, 2019
Published by Kuppy at June 28, 2019
Longtime readers of this site know that I try to avoid making big stock market calls as I feel that I have no edge there. An overvalued market perched on shaky fundamentals can always become more overvalued. Besides, opinions are worth what you pay for them—which incidentally is free around here. I’d rather focus my energy on esoteric pockets of the world that are
Read MorePositions Mentioned: ASPS, AR, SD
December 10, 2018
Published by Kuppy at December 10, 2018
One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
December 3, 2018
Published by Kuppy at December 3, 2018
I am bullish on US natural gas. I realize that this is one of the most contrarian things you can say in finance, but I am indeed bullish. Every investor knows that the US is awash in cheap natural gas, but investors often forget that usage and export volumes have also increased rapidly. Meanwhile, pipeline bottlenecks have slowed down the pace of new supply
Read MorePositions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
November 18, 2018
Published by Kuppy at November 18, 2018
In the two decades that I’ve been investing in stocks, one of my favorite strategies is to follow very successful investors and wait for the opportunity to buy one of their holdings at a sizable discount to what they paid—particularly if the thesis seems to be playing out. With that in mind, it is worth noting that Carl Icahn is one of the greatest
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SandRidge
