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October 2, 2020
Published by Kuppy at October 2, 2020
Over the years, I have spent a lot of time talking about “inflection investments,” but have never really given a playbook for how to approach this genre of investments. Given the number of questions I have received about various investments, clearly, I should have put out some guidance to invest by. What is an inflection investment? This is a situation where some dynamic piece
Read MorePositions Mentioned: EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
May 7, 2020
Published by Kuppy at May 7, 2020
When I add a position, my first question is always the same; is there a way to hedge this? To most people, a hedge means buying puts or shorting an index, both of which have carrying costs and a certain drag on performance. Furthermore, you often learn that it didn’t quite hedge things the way you thought it would. I have lost track of
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SD
March 19, 2020
Published by Kuppy at March 19, 2020
Over the past week, I have taken my bullishness on tankers from level 10 to 11. It started with the Saudis busting out of the cartel formerly known as OPEC+ in order to dump oil and crush US shale, but it has progressed far beyond that as various US cities went into lock-down. Fair warning, I’m going to generalize, I’m going to round some
Read MorePositions Mentioned: DHT, EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
March 13, 2020
Published by Kuppy at March 13, 2020
Long-time readers of this site know that I have a sweet spot for tankers. This is because I know from experience just how volatile they can be to the upside. Meanwhile, with a few exceptions, they trade at the largest discounts to NAV that I can remember, giving you an incredible margin of safety—especially with repaired balance sheets and charter rates spiking to all-time
Read MorePositions Mentioned: DHT, EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
February 2, 2020
Published by Kuppy at February 2, 2020
Yeah, I know. The past few weeks have been miserable for tanker longs. As a good friend keeps reminding me, “Tankers take the escalator up and the elevator down.” He should know, as he’s been investing in shipping since long before I was born. At moments like this, I like to analyze what has changed and see if the thesis has been altered. Let’s
Read MorePositions Mentioned: DHT, EURN, STNG, TNK
October 13, 2019
Published by Kuppy at October 13, 2019
Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders, IMO2020 would likely lead to further supply disruption and shipping is a leveraged play on geopolitical volatility (it was pretty obvious that Trump was going to keep causing chaos), hence you wanted to be long
Read MorePositions Mentioned: STNG
March 28, 2019
Published by Kuppy at March 28, 2019
Reader: …But Kuppy, won’t they build more boats and crush rates? Me: With what money? Shipping is a highly cyclical industry. A boat lasts for two decades but earns most of its money over a handful of quarters—where it often earns truly extraordinary profits. Unfortunately, these earnings incentivize over-ordering and a subsequent glut of vessels for years into the future; destroying charter rates
Read MorePositions Mentioned: STNG
