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February 1, 2023

I Just Don’t Know…

Long-time readers of this site know that I prefer an investing style that is both highly-concentrated and hyper-aggressive. My only goal is to maximize returns over rolling three-year periods. As a result, I’m completely agnostic about volatility, usually running my book well over 100% net-long, while rarely hedging. At the same time, I’m not a masochist. I have come to learn that there are Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: Uranium, Oil
January 25, 2023

On Inflecting Trends…

As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set of assumptions. Sometimes, it’s simply bad luck as some other macro trend supersedes my trend. Even when I get it wrong, there is often still some level of inflection—it’s just that the strength of Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
April 5, 2022

Market History Often Rhymes…

I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that it would lead to “price discovery.” A few months Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
November 8, 2021

On Maxing Out Positions…

The vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated in annual volatility. Unless I’m looking at something with an Event-Driven mindset, where my capital turns over rapidly, I’m mostly uninterested in such meagre expected returns. Honestly, there are better things to do with my capital. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN, KAP LI