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November 23, 2021

Gas Stimmys…


A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets. Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by going out that far in duration. Me: Haha. You’re Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil Futures
November 8, 2021

On Maxing Out Positions…


The vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated in annual volatility. Unless I’m looking at something with an Event-Driven mindset, where my capital turns over rapidly, I’m mostly uninterested in such meagre expected returns. Honestly, there are better things to do with my capital. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN, KAP LI
September 2, 2021

The New GBTC…


Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of the trust structure where any capital that went in, was converted into Bitcoin, but there was no mechanism in place to ever sell coins and redeem that capital. As a result, GBTC became a Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
June 2, 2021

ESG = Energy Stops Growing


For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen gluts. We’ve even seen oil go negative. Throughout this time, we’ve always intuitively known that the cure for high prices is high prices. Last week may have forever changed this prudent logic. I’m starting to Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CL
April 7, 2021

All Good Things Must End…


I’ve been trading stocks for two decades now. As time goes on, I get more attuned to my own gut feel—a gut feel that has been honed from countless mistakes along the way. I don’t know why, but when I have trouble sleeping, it is always about some position of mine. I play the scenarios over in my mind, I think it through, but Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
March 22, 2021

Who’s Scared Of A Few BPS…???


Over the past few months, bonds have had one of their sharpest selloffs in history. This should be no surprise. JPOW and Yellen have been quite clear that they intend to create epic levels of inflation and shred bondholders. History is replete with paper currencies getting debauched. As a result, I expect that our clueless band of inflationeers will succeed beyond their wildest dreams—especially Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Bitcoin, CNR, JOE
January 15, 2021

On Getting Stolen From…


Last night, a buddy texted me. (I’m going to paraphrase a bit as this is a family site) FRIEND: Kuppy, you won’t believe what those assholes did!! ME: Wait!! What?? Who?? FRIEND: They robbed us!! ME: Who?? FRIEND: Read that press release from AT… ME: Holy Shit!! Who else do we know that owns this?? FRIEND: Dunno… You wanna rally the troops and get Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AT
December 31, 2020

2020 Position Review


Lots of people seem to have finance blogs these days. Everyone has opinions on the markets. Once a year, we add up the score and see who got it right. 2019 was something of a whiff for me—I made money, but it was a soft year. Thankfully, I broke out of my slump and knocked the cover off the ball during 2020. While I Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
December 27, 2020

On Riding Freight Trains…


I have a friend who’s a reasonably competent trader. He’s the type who draws his voodoo lines everywhere on the charts. He caught the same trendline break on Bitcoin that I did around $9,200. He expected some resistance around $10,000 and sold out for a quick score just below the figure. He then got the breakout at $12,000 and rode it a few thousand. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC, JOE