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October 30, 2019

I’m On Vacation. Do Your Own Damn Work!! (ASPS Update)


We have a lot of new readers here, so let me reiterate the house rules. -I am not your financial advisor -I don’t know why you bought or sold something. If you choose to buy something I write about, do your own work. NEVER rely on me -If something goes down, I often have no idea why. Small-cap stocks are volatile. Get used to ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
October 25, 2019

Full Frontal Fraud…


Let me cut to the chase; I won a few along the way, but Elon Musk clearly won this most recent battle. Earlier this week, Musk stared at revenue comping negative, collapsing ASPs, and abysmal margins. He had his Draghi moment where he determined that he’d do “whatever it takes.” The alternative was to let investors blast Tesla (TSLA – USA) and face a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLAQ
October 13, 2019

Shipping Is All About Upside Leverage…


Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders, IMO2020 would likely lead to further supply disruption and shipping is a leveraged play on geopolitical volatility (it was pretty obvious that Trump was going to keep causing chaos), hence you wanted to be long ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
September 24, 2019

On Getting Antero Wrong…


I pride myself in being a contrarian. When someone tells me that something positively cannot happen, I immediately wonder what security is mispriced if there’s even a 1% chance it could happen. Often, the securities I’m long are unloved, unpopular and downright hated. When I speak at idea dinners, I’m quite used to people showing a visceral sense of revulsion, followed by pity on ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
August 29, 2019

Uranium


Last night, I had drinks with my good buddy Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin. As you can guess, we talked a lot about Mike’s favorite topic; uranium. Let me preface this discussion by saying that uranium will always be special to me. I was a very early uranium bull in 2003 and had an oversized basket of uranium junior miners (there were like 8 publicly ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U CN
August 20, 2019

Weed Stocks Get “Smoked”


Last month, I wrote an article about the cannabis sector, pointing out that supply growth is massively overshooting limited legal demand growth in Canada. Since then, Q2 earnings proved out this point. You know it’s bad when industry leader Canopy Growth (CGC – USA) grows net revenue by 249% but sees gross margin shrink from 43% to 15% (yea, I know, there’s some moving ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: MJ
August 19, 2019

Shipping Update


I have now written a number of bullish pieces on the shipping sector (article 1, article 2, article 3). My previous articles speculated that a confluence of factors would mark a bottom and lead to a rather impressive recovery in the sector. Those articles were all theoretical, speculating on a recover. Now, we’re finally starting to see dramatically increased charter rates. At the same ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
August 12, 2019

Altisource


A few weeks back, I wrote about “long-shorts.” These are companies that see their businesses improve when the overall economy deteriorates. I’m increasingly convinced that we’re about to see a real doozy of a recession here in America. It will likely be exaggerated by whatever happens in Asia. While shorting gets all the attention, I would much rather own businesses that do well when ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
August 5, 2019

If He’s Tweeting It…


About a year ago, I was watching Real Vision (highly recommend subscribing if you aren’t already subscribed) and saw an interview with Kyle Bass where he made a very prescient observation. Eventually, President Trump will discover that the President has the power to wield tariffs against any country as he wishes. Then all hell will break loose. It really was one of those “aha ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DXY
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