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January 25, 2023

On Inflecting Trends…

As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set of assumptions. Sometimes, it’s simply bad luck as some other macro trend supersedes my trend. Even when I get it wrong, there is often still some level of inflection—it’s just that the strength of Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
December 26, 2022

2022 Position Review

It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point of going through all this effort, if you cannot point to your record of continuously nailing major trends and investment themes. Even when I get one wrong, there’s a learning process involved in admitting Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR, LEE, Oil, Russia, SD, JOE, U-U CN
July 11, 2022

Cashing Out Of Ponzis…

At quarter end, I loaded up on some of the more hilarious Ponzi Schemes that modern finance has created. They were the sort of Ponzis that would make a PM blush on a due diligence call. At the time, I suspected that quarter-end would lead to a short-term respite from the selling. Like clockwork, the selling ended and my basket of Ponzis spent the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
June 30, 2022

Renting Me Some Ponzis…

During the great Ponzi Bubble of 2020 and 2021, many devout value investors, went over to the dark side. When cheap stocks refused to revalue, they saw Ponzis ramping and decided to participate. Why did they stray? It’s hard to say. Some simply wanted to make money. Others, feared for their firms if they didn’t play along—redemptions can be vicious. Maybe a few even Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Ponzi Schemes
June 29, 2022


One of the great mysteries of modern finance is the shape of the crude oil curve. For a summary, it’s in backwardation with the slope levelling off in the mid-$60s during the back half of this decade. Market participants clearly recognize that the spot market is tight, and they are bidding up the front of the curve into a steep backwardation. Why hasn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil
May 2, 2022

In Defense Of Housing…

It is said that generals always fight the last war. Investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in groupthink, focused on narratives—completely ignoring facts. Nowhere is this more extreme than in the housing market. On one hand, you have everyone from homebuilders to the housing supply chain, to brokers saying that the market is Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 5, 2022

Market History Often Rhymes…

I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that it would lead to “price discovery.” A few months Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
March 8, 2022

The Most Annoying Risk…

People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. This investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies with strong macro-tailwinds and then don’t sell until something changes. It’s really that easy. Unfortunately, I’m not the only one practicing this craft. While the stock market is populated by manic traders positioning for each data-point, Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR
March 6, 2022

I Sure Bungled That One…

I like to take on highly contrarian positions at moments of peak angst. Throughout my career, my batting average has been unusually strong. Sometimes I get it wrong. In the case of my recent post on Russia, I got it spectacularly wrong. While my preference is to find stocks that are inflecting with minimal risk, I’m not adverse to catching the proverbial “falling knife.” Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: RSX