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July 11, 2022

Cashing Out Of Ponzis…


At quarter end, I loaded up on some of the more hilarious Ponzi Schemes that modern finance has created. They were the sort of Ponzis that would make a PM blush on a due diligence call. At the time, I suspected that quarter-end would lead to a short-term respite from the selling. Like clockwork, the selling ended and my basket of Ponzis spent the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
June 30, 2022

Renting Me Some Ponzis…


During the great Ponzi Bubble of 2020 and 2021, many devout value investors, went over to the dark side. When cheap stocks refused to revalue, they saw Ponzis ramping and decided to participate. Why did they stray? It’s hard to say. Some simply wanted to make money. Others, feared for their firms if they didn’t play along—redemptions can be vicious. Maybe a few even Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Ponzi Schemes
May 2, 2022

In Defense Of Housing…


It is said that generals always fight the last war. Investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in groupthink, focused on narratives—completely ignoring facts. Nowhere is this more extreme than in the housing market. On one hand, you have everyone from homebuilders to the housing supply chain, to brokers saying that the market is Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 5, 2022

Market History Often Rhymes…


I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that it would lead to “price discovery.” A few months Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U-U CN
March 8, 2022

The Most Annoying Risk…


People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. This investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies with strong macro-tailwinds and then don’t sell until something changes. It’s really that easy. Unfortunately, I’m not the only one practicing this craft. While the stock market is populated by manic traders positioning for each data-point, Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR
March 6, 2022

I Sure Bungled That One…


I like to take on highly contrarian positions at moments of peak angst. Throughout my career, my batting average has been unusually strong. Sometimes I get it wrong. In the case of my recent post on Russia, I got it spectacularly wrong. While my preference is to find stocks that are inflecting with minimal risk, I’m not adverse to catching the proverbial “falling knife.” Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: RSX
February 22, 2022

Buying Russia…


I’m going to keep this short because the situation is fluid. Besides, this one doesn’t need much research or even deep thought. It’s actually quite simple. Here are the facts; Biden tried to screw with Putin. Putin showed Biden that geopolitics is a game that only adults should play. Ball is now in Biden’s court after Putin snagged 2 provinces that absolutely no one Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: RSX
January 24, 2022

Shitridge…


Rewind the clock almost two years… Analyst: For fuk’s sake Kuppy. Stop buying more Shitridge. Me: …but it’s sooo incredibly cheap. Analyst: Who cares? You said that five dollars ago. It wrecked our 2019 and it’s already wrecking our 2020. Me: Our only edge in this game, is to buy more when it transitions from cheap to downright stupid. It’s rare, but occasionally, something Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
December 31, 2021

2021 Position Review


A surprising number of investors seem to have blogs these days. Once a year, we circle back and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point of doing this publicly if we’re not keeping score? (Prior position reviews 2020, 2019, 2018) Let me start by saying that 2021 was a monster year for me, coming on the back of an equally massive 2020. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: