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July 28, 2020

My Favorite Ponzi Scheme…


Let’s set some ground rules here. As far as I’m concerned, Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme. If you think Bitcoin is the future of money, a store of value or any other nonsense, I’m not going to disagree with you. Every good scam needs vocal and loyal apostles. Go out and spread the gospel—you have my support as I’m long. In my mind, Bitcoin ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
July 2, 2020

PG&E Exits BK…


PG&E Corporation (PCG – USA) is an industry leader in arson and manslaughter. They also do something with electricity. PCG filed for bankruptcy in January of 2019 after they were unable to pay billions in claims. To call the bankruptcy process a klusterfuk, is generous to all involved. However, that’s all in the rearview mirror. A bunch of distressed funds teamed up to rig ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: PCG
June 29, 2020

Event-Driven Winning…


On Monday morning, I posted an article about the extreme mispricing of Nikola Motor’s warrants (NKLAW – USA). While there were ways to arb this trade in an almost risk-free manner, I went into them naked as the spread was so damn wide. Since that time, the warrants have risen by roughly 50% (hitting a high of $41 vs roughly $28 when I posted). ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: NKLAW
June 22, 2020

NKLAW’s ED “Issues”…


Ever since I mentioned my event-driven book last week, I’ve had a bunch of questions on it from readers. I’ve been hesitant to speak much about this ED book as the opportunities tend to be short-term in duration and the overall win-rate often isn’t that good. It’s more about risking something tiny to see what happens, applied across a large number of situations. However, ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: NKLAW
May 7, 2020

Takin’ My Foot Off The Gas…


When I add a position, my first question is always the same; is there a way to hedge this? To most people, a hedge means buying puts or shorting an index, both of which have carrying costs and a certain drag on performance. Furthermore, you often learn that it didn’t quite hedge things the way you thought it would. I have lost track of ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
April 13, 2020

Cookin’ With Gas…


Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
April 5, 2020

“Project Zimbabwe”


Roughly a month ago on the afternoon of Sunday, March 8th, Fed Chairman Powell had an emergency staff meeting. Powell: I want the nuttiest money printing plan ever. What action plans do we have that are prepared and ready to initiate? Admin: Well, we have this one named “GFC 2.0” Powell: Sounds tame and sedate. Won’t impress anyone. Admin: What about this one named ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Gold
March 29, 2020

Talkin’ Tankers With Real Vision…


I recently spoke with Real Vision about my tanker thesis. You can click here to watch the interview. Before you laugh at my headset, remember that I run a hedge fund and not a production studio—normally I tape from their studio. Besides, Best Buy is closed with the quarantines and I only had a few hours of notice that they wanted me to talk ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 19, 2020

Crude Contango…


Over the past week, I have taken my bullishness on tankers from level 10 to 11. It started with the Saudis busting out of the cartel formerly known as OPEC+ in order to dump oil and crush US shale, but it has progressed far beyond that as various US cities went into lock-down. Fair warning, I’m going to generalize, I’m going to round some ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DHT, EURN, LPG, STNG, TNK
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