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November 24, 2020

Why This Reflexive Ponzi Scheme Will Continue…


Since many of you are sick of hearing about Bitcoin, I promise this is my last post on the topic for a while. That said, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the unusually lucrative arbitrage trade that is largely responsible for sending Bitcoin parabolic. I glossed over it in my last post and given the questions that I’ve received, a full post Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
November 16, 2020

My Favorite Ponzi Scheme (Part II)…


People frequently point to Bitcoin having a globally distributed ledger. That may be an interesting attribute, but to me, it’s a globally distributed Ponzi Scheme. It’s amazing to watch as thousands of people pump Bitcoin across all nature of platforms. These people may not know each other and they may even dislike each other, but they’re all united in pumping Bitcoin higher. It truly Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
November 12, 2020

What Happens Next…???


Every few years, the stock market seems to be swamped by a “100-year storm.” Investors put their hands up and say “no one could have ever predicted this,” despite there being obvious clues that some sort of an event was imminent. Remember back to the 2000 internet crash when it was obvious that the tech bubble would eventually deflate.  The surprise wasn’t that the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC, JOE, CNR, ARLP, CXW
November 2, 2020

My Trump Trades…


Let’s start with a disclaimer here. I’m not a professional pollster. With few exceptions, most of the professional pollsters are on the opposite side of this trade. I’m a contrarian and that means I am bound to get a few of these wrong. With that disclaimer out of the way, the early voting data shows Trump with a small lead and as the days Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ARLP, CXW
October 9, 2020

SHLL We Unwind This One…???


Yeah, yeah. I know. The ticker has changed and it’s no longer SHLL as the merger got approved. Then again, I’m a fan of word-plays and nothing works with Hyliion. Hell, I don’t even know the right way to pronounce Hyliion. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter as I’ve unwound the position. 13 trading days ago, the spread between the shares and the warrants was $14 Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HYLN
October 7, 2020

Shorts Get ArmaDillar’d


I have been writing a good deal about Event-Driven trading lately on this site; largely because the results have continued to be so strong and I feel that by sharing a few of the strategy types, I can get your mental gears rolling. Three weeks ago, I wrote about the unusual situation at Dillard’s (DDS – USA) where there were more shares short than Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DDS
October 5, 2020

It’s JOEtime!!!


Back in June of 2018, I wrote an initial piece on St. Joe (JOE – USA), owner of approximately 175,000 undeveloped acres along with assorted commercial real estate on the Florida Panhandle. My thesis was that the stock was trading at $18 and the land was worth a few times that figure. However, without a catalyst, I lost interest and focused on other investments Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JOE
September 24, 2020

Playing The Housing Recovery…


Over the past few months, I’ve been writing a lot about Event-Driven strategies, mainly because I see an unusual amount of opportunity there. That said, Event-Driven remains a small piece of my book. The core of what I do is inflection investing—finding a theme that’s inflecting better and get there before anyone else realizes it. With that preamble out of the way, today the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR
September 23, 2020

SHLL We Arb This One…???


I’ve been spending more and more of my time on Event-Driven (ED) trading strategies because I see the most opportunity there. I’ve already spoken about how SPACs often diverge from their own warrants—mainly because the Robinhood platform doesn’t allow its clients to play along in the warrants. Back in June, I played this fact very profitably in Nikola Motors (NKLA – USA) where the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SHLL