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November 2, 2020

My Trump Trades…


Let’s start with a disclaimer here. I’m not a professional pollster. With few exceptions, most of the professional pollsters are on the opposite side of this trade. I’m a contrarian and that means I am bound to get a few of these wrong. With that disclaimer out of the way, the early voting data shows Trump with a small lead and as the days ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ARLP, CXW
October 9, 2020

SHLL We Unwind This One…???


Yeah, yeah. I know. The ticker has changed and it’s no longer SHLL as the merger got approved. Then again, I’m a fan of word-plays and nothing works with Hyliion. Hell, I don’t even know the right way to pronounce Hyliion. Fortunately, it doesn’t matter as I’ve unwound the position. 13 trading days ago, the spread between the shares and the warrants was $14 ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HYLN
October 7, 2020

Shorts Get ArmaDillar’d


I have been writing a good deal about Event-Driven trading lately on this site; largely because the results have continued to be so strong and I feel that by sharing a few of the strategy types, I can get your mental gears rolling. Three weeks ago, I wrote about the unusual situation at Dillard’s (DDS – USA) where there were more shares short than ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DDS
October 5, 2020

It’s JOEtime!!!


Back in June of 2018, I wrote an initial piece on St. Joe (JOE – USA), owner of approximately 175,000 undeveloped acres along with assorted commercial real estate on the Florida Panhandle. My thesis was that the stock was trading at $18 and the land was worth a few times that figure. However, without a catalyst, I lost interest and focused on other investments ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: JOE
September 24, 2020

Playing The Housing Recovery…


Over the past few months, I’ve been writing a lot about Event-Driven strategies, mainly because I see an unusual amount of opportunity there. That said, Event-Driven remains a small piece of my book. The core of what I do is inflection investing—finding a theme that’s inflecting better and get there before anyone else realizes it. With that preamble out of the way, today the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: CNR
September 23, 2020

SHLL We Arb This One…???


I’ve been spending more and more of my time on Event-Driven (ED) trading strategies because I see the most opportunity there. I’ve already spoken about how SPACs often diverge from their own warrants—mainly because the Robinhood platform doesn’t allow its clients to play along in the warrants. Back in June, I played this fact very profitably in Nikola Motors (NKLA – USA) where the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SHLL
September 18, 2020

Turbulence Ahead…


On Monday, I return to work from an extended vacation (I didn’t miss much it seems). I’m refreshed and ready for what will likely be one of the craziest periods for the markets since the COVID Crash. I realize I’m the guy who has gone out there and said you have a free shot on goal ever since late March. I even called it ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
September 14, 2020

An ED Trade From The Road…


Event-Driven (ED) trading continues to perform well lately. As a result, rather than bemoan how value investing is stillborn, I’ve continued to shift more of my capital into what’s working. As I’ve noted previously; you can hope that the market reverts to a prior form, or you can evolve. With the number of active managers in terminal decline, the opportunities in the ED world ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DDS
August 24, 2020

PG&E Redux…


I’m on vacation, but how could I escape the news that California is burning? While PG&E (PCG – USA) has yet to be blamed for these fires, as I sit here in the North Carolina mountains, it sure seems silly to tempt fate. Yeah, I know, I’m the fool for expecting an Event-Driven (ED) situation to work into the teeth of California’s fire season. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: PCG
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