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December 20, 2019

No Thesis Creep For Me…

On Tuesday I wrote about thesis creep from the short sellers in Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ – USA). At the time, I thought I was paying around five times earnings to buy a profitable short-term medical insurance (IFP) broker which was pivoting into the much more lucrative Medicare Advantage business. Furthermore, I felt that I knew why the shares were undervalued—namely an active and ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HIIQ
December 17, 2019

…But Kuppy, Isn’t That A Fraud…???

I’ve always wondered why certain false narratives take over in sectors or individual stocks. What makes it so that investors continue to repeat incorrect information when there is an obvious financial incentive to see things for what they are? I don’t really have an answer for you and for the better part of two decades, I’ve seen this as an opportunity—repeatedly going where the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HIIQ
November 25, 2019

Tankers Keep Trending Better…

For my entire career, I have closely watched the Global Micro Trends I’m invested in (I have a new term and I intend to abuse it—sorry). I have to be honest, quite often, the trend sort of peters out. It’s often still a financial victory, just not what I had hoped for. For instance, let’s look at my investment in the Greek ETF (GREK ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DSSI, NNA, STNG, TNK
November 22, 2019

Stage Stores Evolves…

If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result, the guys leading Stage Stores (SSI – USA) would clarify as clinically insane. Why did anyone think that consolidating a bunch of struggling department store chains in rural America was a good business idea? A quick look at the stock chart over the past decade would ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SSI
October 30, 2019

I’m On Vacation. Do Your Own Damn Work!! (ASPS Update)

We have a lot of new readers here, so let me reiterate the house rules. -I am not your financial advisor -I don’t know why you bought or sold something. If you choose to buy something I write about, do your own work. NEVER rely on me -If something goes down, I often have no idea why. Small-cap stocks are volatile. Get used to ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
October 25, 2019

Full Frontal Fraud…

Let me cut to the chase; I won a few along the way, but Elon Musk clearly won this most recent battle. Earlier this week, Musk stared at revenue comping negative, collapsing ASPs, and abysmal margins. He had his Draghi moment where he determined that he’d do “whatever it takes.” The alternative was to let investors blast Tesla (TSLA – USA) and face a ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TSLAQ
October 13, 2019

Shipping Is All About Upside Leverage…

Nine months ago, I began writing quite regularly about shipping (first article, second article, third article, fourth article). The thesis was simple; there was a dearth of new orders, IMO2020 would likely lead to further supply disruption and shipping is a leveraged play on geopolitical volatility (it was pretty obvious that Trump was going to keep causing chaos), hence you wanted to be long ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: STNG
September 24, 2019

On Getting Antero Wrong…

I pride myself in being a contrarian. When someone tells me that something positively cannot happen, I immediately wonder what security is mispriced if there’s even a 1% chance it could happen. Often, the securities I’m long are unloved, unpopular and downright hated. When I speak at idea dinners, I’m quite used to people showing a visceral sense of revulsion, followed by pity on ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AR
August 29, 2019


Last night, I had drinks with my good buddy Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin. As you can guess, we talked a lot about Mike’s favorite topic; uranium. Let me preface this discussion by saying that uranium will always be special to me. I was a very early uranium bull in 2003 and had an oversized basket of uranium junior miners (there were like 8 publicly ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: U CN
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