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September 18, 2020

Turbulence Ahead…


On Monday, I return to work from an extended vacation (I didn’t miss much it seems). I’m refreshed and ready for what will likely be one of the craziest periods for the markets since the COVID Crash. I realize I’m the guy who has gone out there and said you have a free shot on goal ever since late March. I even called it Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
September 14, 2020

An ED Trade From The Road…


Event-Driven (ED) trading continues to perform well lately. As a result, rather than bemoan how value investing is stillborn, I’ve continued to shift more of my capital into what’s working. As I’ve noted previously; you can hope that the market reverts to a prior form, or you can evolve. With the number of active managers in terminal decline, the opportunities in the ED world Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: DDS
August 24, 2020

PG&E Redux…


I’m on vacation, but how could I escape the news that California is burning? While PG&E (PCG – USA) has yet to be blamed for these fires, as I sit here in the North Carolina mountains, it sure seems silly to tempt fate. Yeah, I know, I’m the fool for expecting an Event-Driven (ED) situation to work into the teeth of California’s fire season. Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: PCG
August 17, 2020

BTC 3.0


I am known as a guy who gets infatuated with a handful of stocks or sectors at a time. I let the subconscious drive me, and as my interest level expands, so does my position sizing. The objective is to take a few highly concentrated shots on goal each year; where I can size up and risk almost nothing by catching the precise inflection-point Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
July 28, 2020

My Favorite Ponzi Scheme…


Let’s set some ground rules here. As far as I’m concerned, Bitcoin is a Ponzi Scheme. If you think Bitcoin is the future of money, a store of value or any other nonsense, I’m not going to disagree with you. Every good scam needs vocal and loyal apostles. Go out and spread the gospel—you have my support as I’m long. In my mind, Bitcoin Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
July 2, 2020

PG&E Exits BK…


PG&E Corporation (PCG – USA) is an industry leader in arson and manslaughter. They also do something with electricity. PCG filed for bankruptcy in January of 2019 after they were unable to pay billions in claims. To call the bankruptcy process a klusterfuk, is generous to all involved. However, that’s all in the rearview mirror. A bunch of distressed funds teamed up to rig Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: PCG
June 29, 2020

Event-Driven Winning…


On Monday morning, I posted an article about the extreme mispricing of Nikola Motor’s warrants (NKLAW – USA). While there were ways to arb this trade in an almost risk-free manner, I went into them naked as the spread was so damn wide. Since that time, the warrants have risen by roughly 50% (hitting a high of $41 vs roughly $28 when I posted). Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: NKLAW
June 22, 2020

NKLAW’s ED “Issues”…


Ever since I mentioned my event-driven book last week, I’ve had a bunch of questions on it from readers. I’ve been hesitant to speak much about this ED book as the opportunities tend to be short-term in duration and the overall win-rate often isn’t that good. It’s more about risking something tiny to see what happens, applied across a large number of situations. However, Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: NKLAW
May 7, 2020

Takin’ My Foot Off The Gas…


When I add a position, my first question is always the same; is there a way to hedge this? To most people, a hedge means buying puts or shorting an index, both of which have carrying costs and a certain drag on performance. Furthermore, you often learn that it didn’t quite hedge things the way you thought it would. I have lost track of Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD