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February 1, 2023
Published by Kuppy at February 1, 2023
Long-time readers of this site know that I prefer an investing style that is both highly-concentrated and hyper-aggressive. My only goal is to maximize returns over rolling three-year periods. As a result, I’m completely agnostic about volatility, usually running my book well over 100% net-long, while rarely hedging. At the same time, I’m not a masochist. I have come to learn that there are
Read MorePositions Mentioned: Uranium, Oil
January 25, 2023
Published by Kuppy at January 25, 2023
As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set of assumptions. Sometimes, it’s simply bad luck as some other macro trend supersedes my trend. Even when I get it wrong, there is often still some level of inflection—it’s just that the strength of
Read MorePositions Mentioned: U-U CN
December 26, 2022
Published by Kuppy at December 26, 2022
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point of going through all this effort, if you cannot point to your record of continuously nailing major trends and investment themes. Even when I get one wrong, there’s a learning process involved in admitting
Read MorePositions Mentioned: CNR, LEE, Oil, Russia, SD, JOE, U-U CN
November 4, 2022
Published by Kuppy at November 4, 2022
I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a question—in fact, it seems to be the only question in my mind as we find an event-path for “Project Zimbabwe” to re-accelerate. Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine that OPEC pulled back
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October 16, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 16, 2022
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk
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October 9, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 9, 2022
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 The Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver is severely restricted. The Fed claims that they’re targeting a terminal rate of 4.6% for Fed Funds, but if they did that for any period of time, they’d only succeed in
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October 5, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 5, 2022
The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen
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September 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at September 18, 2022
Part 1 Part 2 Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like to focus on the Fed Funds Rate as the price of money also has a dramatic effect on risk assets. Oddly, we rarely focus on the actual banking function of the
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August 22, 2022
Published by Kuppy at August 22, 2022
I have frequently described “Project Zimbabwe” as a highly inflationary cycle where both fiscal and monetary stimulus go into insanity mode. While I sincerely hope we don’t go hyperinflationary like Zimbabwe, I certainly think we see an elongated period of substantial and debilitating inflation. When this cycle finally ends, society and our financial system will have been irreparably changed. For those who are aware
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I Just Don’t Know…