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May 24, 2020

Post-COVID Capitalism…


I have now run a few companies. Over time, I have experienced a repeated epiphany; which is that you never realize which employees are useless until they go on a vacation and nothing bad happens. Now, this isn’t a dig at good employees; good ones find ways to delegate their responsibilities and still check their emails—great ones work harder while on vacation. However, the ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
May 19, 2020

No One Knows What Comes Next…


I’m writing this to you as a Miami Beach refugee hiding out on the Florida Panhandle, where they actually let you set foot on the beach; masks are optional and restaurants are open. It’s like I’ve gone back in time to February. Besides, you wouldn’t believe the deal I got on a beach-house during COVID. I also know that I needed to escape my ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: Gold
April 21, 2020

It’s Getting Strange Out There…


I’m one of those guys who’s always believed that certain truths are sacrosanct. Interest rates would always stay positive, commodities would always be worth something and the US government would pretend to care about the deficit. Over the past few years, I feel like the hedgie who’s learned that the Easter Bunny doesn’t really exist. Honestly, a lot of what I accepted as being ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 20, 2020

Investing In The Age Of COVID…


Four weeks ago, the stock market was in free-fall and I made the point that “if you aren’t buying stock down here, you’re simply doing it all wrong.” I fortuitously published it on the day that the market bottomed. Looking back at my call to “buy stuff,” the Fed did exactly what I expected by unleashing an alphabet-soup of acronym programs—forcing people to buy ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 9, 2020

Balance Sheet Evolution…


Last week, we got news that Carnival (CCL – USA) became the first of many large corporations to aggressively dilute shareholders after a decade of reckless financial engineering. Before discussing this malfeasance of capital structure management, let’s rewind three decades. Excluding brief periods of exuberance at the end of the 1920s and 1960s most public companies historically were staid organizations—they grew a few percent ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
March 8, 2020

Hospitality Goes No Bid…


I recently wrote about the WuFlu that was coming to a neighborhood near you. It was meant as a warning that you should look through your book and see if you owned companies that were exposed to the virus. I bring this up because two weeks later, many companies in the hospitality sector have simply collapsed. My hunch is that it gets worse—much worse. ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 24, 2020

Extreme Complacency…


A few years back, I read an incredible white paper regarding investor complacency in the final weeks leading up to the First World War. Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated, global powers were trading demands, with the threat of war and investors didn’t care. As the crisis heated up and the armies began to mobilize, investors still were in a fantasy world. Back then, bonds were ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 18, 2020

Is PE Having Its WeWork Moment…???


For the better part of a decade, institutional investors have redeemed capital from active strategies and dumped it into Private Equity (PE). What’s the benefit of PE for allocators? You get to have levered equity returns without the volatility of actually owning public equities. Unlike stocks that often fluctuate wildly, PE is marked-to-model (M-T-M), hence quarterly volatility is minimal. Then, when there’s a liquidity ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 6, 2020

Giga-Stupidity Has No Limits…


Don’t worry, this isn’t another detailed article on Tesla (TSLAQ – USA). I’ve permanently sworn those off. As far as I’m concerned, there are two camps of investors; those who think it’s a fraud and those who aren’t very good at math. However, that doesn’t mean that Tesla cannot be a good long or short at the right moments in time—yeah, I know, hypocrisy; ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
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