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October 11, 2021

Will Risk Parity Blow Up…???


For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset classes seemed to offset each other, creating a smoothed-out return profile, was not lost on certain fund managers who created portfolios comprised of the two. Then, to better market this portfolio to the sorts of Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 30, 2021

It’s about to get wild…


  A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere (I’ve never understood how this works, but it is crazy how fast they can show up). Me: I’ll take a large umbrella. Him: That will be $50. Me: WTF!!! That’s a 2 dollar Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 29, 2021

Will ESG Create The Next Lehman Moment…???


Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little of it—billionaires need hobbies and all. Besides, true billionaire credentials are gained when a squadron of luxury jets arrives to lecture some impoverished country on why they don’t deserve electricity. It is as cringeworthy Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 20, 2021

When The Levee Breaks…


If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home Oh well, oh well, Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
August 19, 2021

(In)Stability…


This weekend, I watched in baffled amazement as our President and his entire administration went on vacation, abandoning tens of thousands of Americans, along with allied citizens, to their fate in Afghanistan. America has done some embarrassingly dumb things during my lifetime, but this one displayed a special sort of arrogance and incompetence that can only develop through years of hubris, gross negligence, and Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
June 21, 2021

JPOW Jests…


Thursday afternoon, there was a press conference. Some dots were moved about on a piece of paper and JPOW threatened a few basis points of yield in a year or two. I didn’t bother to tune in because I had a hunch that nothing would happen. I was correct. Absolutely nothing happened at the meeting. If not for the price action in some securities Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
May 5, 2021

Focus On The Facts…


One of the great benefits of writing this blog is that I get hundreds of emails each month. These emails give me a unique perspective into what others see and an insight into how they run their books. With that in mind, I’d like to explore an odd concept in finance—investors’ political views getting in the way of them making money. As our world Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 19, 2021

Trading “Project Zimbabwe…”


At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, it was obvious that the equity markets would blast higher—as a result I strapped on as much exposure as I could stomach while remaining a responsible fiduciary. I was also early to recognize the massive influx of retail traders Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
March 29, 2021

Ponzis Go Boom!!!


For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect at scale. In fact, many of the Ponzi Sector companies seem to Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: GBTC