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December 4, 2019

Inflation Is Coming…


Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 29, 2019

ESG = Excessive Share-price Growth


Two months ago, something rather monumental happened, which seems to have been lost to the news-cycle. In a world starved for yield, a company with trailing twelve month free cash flow of $527 million (cash flow from operations – maintenance cap-ex) and net debt of only $593 million could not re-finance debt due in 2022. Sure, the company’s end-markets are currently a little soft ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: BTU
October 17, 2019

If A Stock Has A PR And No One Reads It…


We’ve all heard the philosophical quandary, “If a tree falls in the forest, will anyone hear it?” I’d like to pose a more pertinent question, “If a small-cap company has a material press release and no one reads it, will the equity ever re-price?” Let’s go back two decades; I’m living in my fraternity house and it’s the dawn of widespread online trading, where ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
October 2, 2019

Getting Ready For The Stock Market Crash…


It is something of a tradition amongst market commentators to make bold stock market calls because they gain you notoriety if you get it right. Over here at AiC, I don’t particularly care what people think. I’m here to make money—that’s it. Therefore, I’ve refrained from big market calls—particularly as I have no real edge in guessing where an index of a few hundred ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 25, 2019

Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…


Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country.  In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami. Roughly a year ago, I noticed that Miami property prices started to decline after a two or three-year period ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 20, 2019

Are Trump’s Incentives About To Change…???


Three weeks ago, I did the unforgivable and waded into US politics. I apologize, but I am about to do so again. Fortunately for all of us, I’ll keep my thoughts specifically to the stock market. Say what you will about Trump, he has had only one goal for the past three years; pump the hell out of the stock market. He tweets at ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 8, 2019

2 Letters; $20 Billion Lost


Over the past few months, we’ve learned a lot about the psyche of the typical Ponzi Sector investor. You see, Ponzi sector investors will ignore most red flags, even at a company like WeWork, with more red flags than a Soviet May Day parade; Super-voting stock – Zuck did that and it worked out in the end Accelerating losses – Look at all that ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
August 30, 2019

Talking Shipping With Mike Alkin


Over the past few months, I’ve received a lot of questions on shipping. Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin invited me on his show to answer some of those questions. We talked shipping, uranium, Greece and much more. My part begins at the 20 minute mark (damn Uber had me late).  I hope you enjoy. https://www.curzioresearch.com/this-beautifully-ugly-industry-has-massive-upside-potential/   
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
August 26, 2019

It May Just Detonate…


Over the years, I’ve avoided talking much about US politics unless it directly impacts the markets. Longtime readers will know that I’m socially liberal and economically libertarian. As for politicians, I find them all to be liars; playing off human emotions for their own gain. I hate both main parties equally, as I don’t see either party representing what I believe in. With that ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
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