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May 16, 2022

The Fed Is Fuct…


The Fed is fuct. They know it. We know it. They know we know it. They intend to continue the charade anyway. Despite centuries of study, no one really knows what causes inflation. While it tends to show up during periods with excessive money printing and large fiscal deficits, sometimes such periods have not witnessed inflation. No one knows why it shows up when Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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April 25, 2022

The Undertow…


Think back to the summer of 2019. Back before COVID and before oil traded with a negative integer. I remember foolishly trying to find a bottom in oil and gas producers. While, I am no specialist in energy, the prices seemed unhinged from reality. Multiple producers were trading at large discounts to stated PDP, even using crazy strip values. There were even a few Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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April 18, 2022

The New Levels…


For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire generation of producers and consumers came to expect that it would remain in that range. They’d sell excess inventory when it poked over a buck and fill warehouses in the sixties. That range defined Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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February 15, 2022

Impediments To US Oil Production Growth…


I recently interviewed my good buddy Josh Young, from Bison Interests, on a Twitter Spaces where we discussed all the unappreciated impediments to a resumption of US oil production growth. We cover a lot of topics and take a grand tour through all the various subsectors, components and suppliers needed to drill and produce a well. Despite spending a lot of time following oil, Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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January 3, 2022

The Great Rotation…


In a few short hours, we’re headed back into the trenches. No sleep for us weary hedgies. They’ve re-set the performance clock at zero and we’ve got to fight our way forward, showing why we’re worth those incentive fees. Before heading off for battle, I figured a 2022 roadmap would be helpful. Here’s mine. I’ve been critical of the Ponzi Sector for quite some Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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December 27, 2021

The Problem With Ponzis…


Over the past few years, I’ve been highly critical of the Ponzi Sector. This is a whole grouping of companies that has no ability or desire to ever become profitable. Instead, these businesses have focused on rapid revenue growth because the stock market has rewarded them for this growth—especially if there are no profits. In reality, stock promotion is the core business of the Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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October 11, 2021

Will Risk Parity Blow Up…???


For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset classes seemed to offset each other, creating a smoothed-out return profile, was not lost on certain fund managers who created portfolios comprised of the two. Then, to better market this portfolio to the sorts of Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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September 30, 2021

It’s about to get wild…


  A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere (I’ve never understood how this works, but it is crazy how fast they can show up). Me: I’ll take a large umbrella. Him: That will be $50. Me: WTF!!! That’s a 2 dollar Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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September 29, 2021

Will ESG Create The Next Lehman Moment…???


Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little of it—billionaires need hobbies and all. Besides, true billionaire credentials are gained when a squadron of luxury jets arrives to lecture some impoverished country on why they don’t deserve electricity. It is as cringeworthy Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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