Archives

Please click on a button below to jump straight to that category.
August 19, 2021

(In)Stability…


This weekend, I watched in baffled amazement as our President and his entire administration went on vacation, abandoning tens of thousands of Americans, along with allied citizens, to their fate in Afghanistan. America has done some embarrassingly dumb things during my lifetime, but this one displayed a special sort of arrogance and incompetence that can only develop through years of hubris, gross negligence, and ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
June 21, 2021

JPOW Jests…


Thursday afternoon, there was a press conference. Some dots were moved about on a piece of paper and JPOW threatened a few basis points of yield in a year or two. I didn’t bother to tune in because I had a hunch that nothing would happen. I was correct. Absolutely nothing happened at the meeting. If not for the price action in some securities ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
May 5, 2021

Focus On The Facts…


One of the great benefits of writing this blog is that I get hundreds of emails each month. These emails give me a unique perspective into what others see and an insight into how they run their books. With that in mind, I’d like to explore an odd concept in finance—investors’ political views getting in the way of them making money. As our world ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 19, 2021

Trading “Project Zimbabwe…”


At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, it was obvious that the equity markets would blast higher—as a result I strapped on as much exposure as I could stomach while remaining a responsible fiduciary. I was also early to recognize the massive influx of retail traders ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
March 29, 2021

Ponzis Go Boom!!!


For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect at scale. In fact, many of the Ponzi Sector companies seem to ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: GBTC
January 25, 2021

On Avoiding Expensive Mistakes…


Let me throw this out there; the investing game is mind-numbingly easy. You buy good businesses for less than fair value. Sure, we can all argue about fair value. There are always surprises in the future trajectory of a business. This game has some wrinkles and drama, but at the most basic level, it’s easy. In fact, done correctly, it only involves a handful ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: GME
August 10, 2020

A Warning To The Compounder Bros…


Once a quarter, I spend a Sunday reading through all the quarterly fund letters that have accumulated in my inbox. Of course, I’m selfishly seeking out stock ideas, but by reading over a hundred letters in a single sitting, I can better pick out trends in positioning and other nuances. Despite everyone claiming to be contrarian, the vast majority of fund managers know each ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
August 5, 2020

Stop Shorting “Project Zimbabwe”


I have spent a lot of time on this site speaking about “Project Zimbabwe” as this period is so poorly understood and if you get it wrong, you’ll get annihilated. I have also written about how it’s getting strange out there as stocks no longer seem to have floors or ceilings on valuations. The moves are increasingly sudden and random as the active manager ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
July 16, 2020

Did The Market Actually Recover From COVID-19…???


Here’s the head-scratcher; -On one side, we have wave 2 of COVID-19, complete with new restrictions in multiple counties and states. Roughly 30 million people are out of work. Thousands of businesses are failing each week due to government COVID-19 mandates. Rent and mortgage payments are increasingly delinquent and all of this is before the fiscal stimulus tapers off. -On the other side, the ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
Scroll Up