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March 8, 2020

Hospitality Goes No Bid…


I recently wrote about the WuFlu that was coming to a neighborhood near you. It was meant as a warning that you should look through your book and see if you owned companies that were exposed to the virus. I bring this up because two weeks later, many companies in the hospitality sector have simply collapsed. My hunch is that it gets worse—much worse. ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 24, 2020

Extreme Complacency…


A few years back, I read an incredible white paper regarding investor complacency in the final weeks leading up to the First World War. Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated, global powers were trading demands, with the threat of war and investors didn’t care. As the crisis heated up and the armies began to mobilize, investors still were in a fantasy world. Back then, bonds were ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 18, 2020

Is PE Having Its WeWork Moment…???


For the better part of a decade, institutional investors have redeemed capital from active strategies and dumped it into Private Equity (PE). What’s the benefit of PE for allocators? You get to have levered equity returns without the volatility of actually owning public equities. Unlike stocks that often fluctuate wildly, PE is marked-to-model (M-T-M), hence quarterly volatility is minimal. Then, when there’s a liquidity ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
February 6, 2020

Giga-Stupidity Has No Limits…


Don’t worry, this isn’t another detailed article on Tesla (TSLAQ – USA). I’ve permanently sworn those off. As far as I’m concerned, there are two camps of investors; those who think it’s a fraud and those who aren’t very good at math. However, that doesn’t mean that Tesla cannot be a good long or short at the right moments in time—yeah, I know, hypocrisy; ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
January 9, 2020

The Only Constant Is Change…


Quick housekeeping note: I’ll be in Orlando for ICR from January 12 to 15. If you’re attending and would like to chat stocks, please email me at kuppy@adventuresincapitalism.com Last week, I was in Coimbra, Portugal. For a bit over a century starting in 1131, Coimbra was the capital of Portugal. Looking at a map, it should be obvious why this was. Coimbra is situated ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
December 4, 2019

Inflation Is Coming…


Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 29, 2019

ESG = Excessive Share-price Growth


Two months ago, something rather monumental happened, which seems to have been lost to the news-cycle. In a world starved for yield, a company with trailing twelve month free cash flow of $527 million (cash flow from operations – maintenance cap-ex) and net debt of only $593 million could not re-finance debt due in 2022. Sure, the company’s end-markets are currently a little soft ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: BTU
October 17, 2019

If A Stock Has A PR And No One Reads It…


We’ve all heard the philosophical quandary, “If a tree falls in the forest, will anyone hear it?” I’d like to pose a more pertinent question, “If a small-cap company has a material press release and no one reads it, will the equity ever re-price?” Let’s go back two decades; I’m living in my fraternity house and it’s the dawn of widespread online trading, where ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: ASPS
October 2, 2019

Getting Ready For The Stock Market Crash…


It is something of a tradition amongst market commentators to make bold stock market calls because they gain you notoriety if you get it right. Over here at AiC, I don’t particularly care what people think. I’m here to make money—that’s it. Therefore, I’ve refrained from big market calls—particularly as I have no real edge in guessing where an index of a few hundred ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
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