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February 1, 2023
Published by Kuppy at February 1, 2023
Long-time readers of this site know that I prefer an investing style that is both highly-concentrated and hyper-aggressive. My only goal is to maximize returns over rolling three-year periods. As a result, I’m completely agnostic about volatility, usually running my book well over 100% net-long, while rarely hedging. At the same time, I’m not a masochist. I have come to learn that there are
Read MorePositions Mentioned: Uranium, Oil
November 4, 2022
Published by Kuppy at November 4, 2022
I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a question—in fact, it seems to be the only question in my mind as we find an event-path for “Project Zimbabwe” to re-accelerate. Let’s try a thought experiment. Imagine that OPEC pulled back
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October 9, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 9, 2022
Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 The Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver is severely restricted. The Fed claims that they’re targeting a terminal rate of 4.6% for Fed Funds, but if they did that for any period of time, they’d only succeed in
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September 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at September 18, 2022
Part 1 Part 2 Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like to focus on the Fed Funds Rate as the price of money also has a dramatic effect on risk assets. Oddly, we rarely focus on the actual banking function of the
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August 22, 2022
Published by Kuppy at August 22, 2022
I have frequently described “Project Zimbabwe” as a highly inflationary cycle where both fiscal and monetary stimulus go into insanity mode. While I sincerely hope we don’t go hyperinflationary like Zimbabwe, I certainly think we see an elongated period of substantial and debilitating inflation. When this cycle finally ends, society and our financial system will have been irreparably changed. For those who are aware
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June 13, 2022
Published by Kuppy at June 13, 2022
For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which may also be a function of how terrible most government functionaries are. As JPOW suddenly pretends that Volcker was his boyhood hero, I think it’s worth re-examining Volcker’s inflation fight. Of course, everyone knows
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May 26, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 26, 2022
Part 1 is here. Let’s try a thought experiment here. Fast forward into winter. The Fed has been on autopilot and has continued to raise rates. They’ve managed to crush risk assets and the “negative wealth effect” is rapidly filtering through to the consumer economy. All the guys trading meme stonks and monkey JPEGs have now returned to their prior jobs and the supply
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May 16, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 16, 2022
The Fed is fuct. They know it. We know it. They know we know it. They intend to continue the charade anyway. Despite centuries of study, no one really knows what causes inflation. While it tends to show up during periods with excessive money printing and large fiscal deficits, sometimes such periods have not witnessed inflation. No one knows why it shows up when
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April 25, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 25, 2022
Think back to the summer of 2019. Back before COVID and before oil traded with a negative integer. I remember foolishly trying to find a bottom in oil and gas producers. While, I am no specialist in energy, the prices seemed unhinged from reality. Multiple producers were trading at large discounts to stated PDP, even using crazy strip values. There were even a few
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I Just Don’t Know…