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July 11, 2022
Published by Kuppy at July 11, 2022
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At quarter end, I loaded up on some of the more hilarious Ponzi Schemes that modern finance has created. They were the sort of Ponzis that would make a PM blush on a due diligence call. At the time, I suspected that quarter-end would lead to a short-term respite from the selling. Like clockwork, the selling ended and my basket of Ponzis spent the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
June 30, 2022
Published by Kuppy at June 30, 2022
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During the great Ponzi Bubble of 2020 and 2021, many devout value investors, went over to the dark side. When cheap stocks refused to revalue, they saw Ponzis ramping and decided to participate. Why did they stray? It’s hard to say. Some simply wanted to make money. Others, feared for their firms if they didn’t play along—redemptions can be vicious. Maybe a few even Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Ponzi Schemes
June 29, 2022
Published by Kuppy at June 29, 2022
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One of the great mysteries of modern finance is the shape of the crude oil curve. For a summary, it’s in backwardation with the slope levelling off in the mid-$60s during the back half of this decade. Market participants clearly recognize that the spot market is tight, and they are bidding up the front of the curve into a steep backwardation. Why hasn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil
May 26, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 26, 2022
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Part 1 is here. Let’s try a thought experiment here. Fast forward into winter. The Fed has been on autopilot and has continued to raise rates. They’ve managed to crush risk assets and the “negative wealth effect” is rapidly filtering through to the consumer economy. All the guys trading meme stonks and monkey JPEGs have now returned to their prior jobs and the supply Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
May 16, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 16, 2022
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The Fed is fuct. They know it. We know it. They know we know it. They intend to continue the charade anyway. Despite centuries of study, no one really knows what causes inflation. While it tends to show up during periods with excessive money printing and large fiscal deficits, sometimes such periods have not witnessed inflation. No one knows why it shows up when Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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May 2, 2022
Published by Kuppy at May 2, 2022
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It is said that generals always fight the last war. Investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in groupthink, focused on narratives—completely ignoring facts. Nowhere is this more extreme than in the housing market. On one hand, you have everyone from homebuilders to the housing supply chain, to brokers saying that the market is Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
April 25, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 25, 2022
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Think back to the summer of 2019. Back before COVID and before oil traded with a negative integer. I remember foolishly trying to find a bottom in oil and gas producers. While, I am no specialist in energy, the prices seemed unhinged from reality. Multiple producers were trading at large discounts to stated PDP, even using crazy strip values. There were even a few Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 18, 2022
Published by Kuppy at April 18, 2022
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For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire generation of producers and consumers came to expect that it would remain in that range. They’d sell excess inventory when it poked over a buck and fill warehouses in the sixties. That range defined Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
Volcker and Inflation…