Do you remember Gadzooks? Probably not (yet it had over 400 stores only a decade ago). In five years, I’ll be able to ask you the same question about Wet Seal (WTSLA), Aeropostale (ARO), Body Central (BODY), Cache (CACH) and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN). You won’t remember any of these because, despite having spent tens of millions a year in marketing, they have no brand Read More

Ever since oil prices bottomed in 2002, people have wanted to believe that new supply would reduce prices. Over the past decade, they’ve talked about increased Iraqi and Libyan oil; there has been the promise of tar sands and Brazilian pre-salts and now they’re talking about shale oil. Yet, despite all of this talk, world oil production has plateaued for years. The simple truth Read More

  I’ll be the first to admit that I have no idea how to value Twitter (TWTR: USA). For that matter, I don’t even know how to tweet. However, if you liked the stock on Monday, you must really like it today (Wednesday)—two days later—nothing has changed at the business, yet the shares are down by nearly 25%. Why are the shares down so Read More

For years, people have relied on Transparency International’s Corruptions Perceptions Index (CPI) as the global arbiter of corruption amongst various countries. Therefore, I was quite surprised when I looked at the recently released “heat map” showing which countries are corrupt (red) and which are not corrupt (yellow). Within seconds of looking at the map, I was struck with a question—why are the English speaking Read More

I had been planning to write a piece on the Ukraine (with its revolution and all), but then I saw the following article on “Truth & Beauty […And Russian Finance].” I cannot equal this piece, so I will not try. For that matter, few websites have been more uniquely adept at demystifying Russia, while remaining prescient in calling investable global macro trends. I very highly recommend Read More

In the 9 years that I have lived on Miami Beach, I have always rented instead of buying a home. To me, it was simple math, my rent was less than the combination of property taxes and condo fees—I felt like I was way ahead, even before considering all of the other expenses of property ownership like maintenance and insurance. Unfortunately, this hasn’t always Read More

I’ve spent my investing career accepting improbable events when the world thinks such events are impossible. I’ve also spent a lifetime hiding from popular investment ideas. Often, when contemplating unpopular investing ideas, you don’t have to get the timing right—you just have to be early enough to be prepared for them and avoid becoming trapped looking the wrong way. I remember back in early Read More

Until quite recently, the central banks of many emerging markets have fought a losing battle against rapidly appreciating currencies. It wasn’t so much that their currencies were appreciating because of fundamentals—instead, too many US Dollar were being printed and they were searching for a home that provided returns. Take Brazil for instance. Starting from the lows in late 2008, the Brazilian Real (BRL) appreciated Read More

From 1860 to 1865, 11 states effectively told the Federal Government, “We disagree with your laws—if you try to enforce them, we’ll shoot back.” It took over 4 years of war before the Federal Government forced them to follow the laws. While unsuccessful, you sure have to admire their sense of pluck. Yesterday, I read the following article in the New York Times http://nyti.ms/19XPcdy I Read More