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October 16, 2022

Are DMs now EMs…???

Published by Kuppy at October 16, 2022
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The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” To be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get dismissed or even worse, ignored. No where is this tail risk Read More
Categories: Investment Strategy
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October 5, 2022

OPEC’s Counterattack…

Published by Kuppy at October 5, 2022
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The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen Read More
Categories: Investment Strategy
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September 18, 2022

The Fed Is Fuct Part 3

Published by Kuppy at September 18, 2022
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Part 1        Part 2 Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like to focus on the Fed Funds Rate as the price of money also has a dramatic effect on risk assets. Oddly, we rarely focus on the actual banking function of the Read More
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June 21, 2021

JPOW Jests…

Published by Kuppy at June 21, 2021
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Thursday afternoon, there was a press conference. Some dots were moved about on a piece of paper and JPOW threatened a few basis points of yield in a year or two. I didn’t bother to tune in because I had a hunch that nothing would happen. I was correct. Absolutely nothing happened at the meeting. If not for the price action in some securities Read More
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March 25, 2019

Why The Fed Should Not Stop Raising Rates

Published by Kuppy at March 25, 2019
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A very smart and wealthy friend always reminds me that you have to invest in the market landscape that exists today—not the one you wish for. That said, I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who views the capital markets through the lens of financial history. That history would imply that the Fed should keep hiking rates and ignore the yield curve. Read More
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