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February 14, 2016

A Crisis In Ponzi-Land (MLP Style)


A few years back, I was at dinner with a British ship-owner who had just sold part of his fleet for almost $250 million (which was about $200 million more than he had paid for the ships only a few years earlier). He couldn’t stop laughing. Sure, they threw off about $50 million in cash (20% yield for the buyers) based on this year’s ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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November 11, 2015

A Message From Tal…


My Buddy Tal, publisher of Beijing Perspective (http://www.beijingperspective.com) sent me the following last week. It’s both prescient and obvious advice. I felt the need to share as I agree completely. If you want more of his notes, I recommend signing up at his site. Kuppy   November 7, 2015 Two cents on interest rates Cent #1) “Anyone familiar with asset markets know that it is ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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November 8, 2015

Who Says You Can’t Buy Love…??


It has now been three weeks since CitronResearch.com accused Valeant (VRX: NYSE) of being Pharmron (Pharma + Enron). Ever since then, I’ve read a bunch of articles and tried to find an actionable angle. When there are rumors, innuendo and allegations of fraud, there’s a potential for opportunity. However, the deeper I dug; something increasingly struck me as rather odd about Valeant. At its ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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September 27, 2015

Here Comes The Blood!!


Starting at the end of 2014, I wrote a number of pieces (There Will Be Blood!!, There Will Be Blood!! (Part II), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III.V)) detailing how QE was facilitating the production of certain real assets like oil where the production decision was no longer being tied to profitability. For instance, shale producers could borrow cheaply, produce at ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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June 4, 2015

Lionfish


Many years ago, when I still invested in mining companies, I visited a promising exploration target in South America. As we drove up a river valley towards the deposit, we entered a lunar landscape where nothing grew. The valley walls were denuded of vegetation and the river ran orange from acid mine drainage. As we travelled the next 10 or so miles, the earth ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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January 20, 2015

There Will Be Blood!!! (Part III.v)


Modern central bankers are from the school of thought where there is always an eloquent academic model to approach each crisis with. Naturally, volatility is their enemy—in a highly leveraged world, volatility usually leads to dislocation and crisis. Central bankers obviously know that the halving of oil’s price in a few short months adds unnecessary volatility to their carefully orchestrated worlds. What they want ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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December 26, 2014

There Will Be Blood!! (Part II)


Let me be clear: I am no expert on shale wells. I’m not even an “almost” expert in the shale sector. If you called me an idiot when it comes to shale drilling, I wouldn’t argue with you. With that caveat out of the way, I’m going to generalize about the shale sector (anyway). In oil and gas, most of the money is spent up front in ... Read More
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November 16, 2014

QE Assets Diverge From The Real World


In 1324, King Edward II of England codified something that had already been taken for granted for nearly half a millennium—the definition of the inch. Henceforth, the inch was defined as “three grains of barley, dry and round, placed end to end, lengthwise”. A foot was then 36 barleycorns and a yard was 108 barleycorns. Taken to its logical extreme, five yards make a ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
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August 4, 2014

Is Indexing Just Socialism For Stocks?


Decades ago, index funds were created with the view that many stock pickers have no real ability to pick stocks—therefore, those people would be better off simply owning an index of stocks and receiving the performance of the overall stock market. Since then, studies have shown that index funds have outperformed the majority of actively managed funds. There are now index funds and ETFs ... Read More
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