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January 20, 2015

There Will Be Blood!!! (Part III.v)


Modern central bankers are from the school of thought where there is always an eloquent academic model to approach each crisis with. Naturally, volatility is their enemy—in a highly leveraged world, volatility usually leads to dislocation and crisis. Central bankers obviously know that the halving of oil’s price in a few short months adds unnecessary volatility to their carefully orchestrated worlds. What they want ... Read More
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December 26, 2014

There Will Be Blood!! (Part II)


Let me be clear: I am no expert on shale wells. I’m not even an “almost” expert in the shale sector. If you called me an idiot when it comes to shale drilling, I wouldn’t argue with you. With that caveat out of the way, I’m going to generalize about the shale sector (anyway). In oil and gas, most of the money is spent up front in ... Read More
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November 16, 2014

QE Assets Diverge From The Real World


In 1324, King Edward II of England codified something that had already been taken for granted for nearly half a millennium—the definition of the inch. Henceforth, the inch was defined as “three grains of barley, dry and round, placed end to end, lengthwise”. A foot was then 36 barleycorns and a yard was 108 barleycorns. Taken to its logical extreme, five yards make a ... Read More
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August 4, 2014

Is Indexing Just Socialism For Stocks?


Decades ago, index funds were created with the view that many stock pickers have no real ability to pick stocks—therefore, those people would be better off simply owning an index of stocks and receiving the performance of the overall stock market. Since then, studies have shown that index funds have outperformed the majority of actively managed funds. There are now index funds and ETFs ... Read More
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July 2, 2014

Bear Raids 2.0


Two weeks ago, I received a spam email from Prescience Point Research, asking me to click a link (LINK TO THESIS) and see a short selling thesis on Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI: USA). I read about a third of the report, found the allegations regarding CBI to be intriguing but quickly lost interest. I have no position in the stock, don’t short stocks ... Read More
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June 10, 2014

The Era Of Cheap Oil Is Over


The greatest honor in the blogosphere is to be quoted by another blogger. I will now return the favor to my friend at Buyside Notes who has done an excellent job of expanding upon my Kashagan piece, to show all of the many reasons that oil prices will not be declining any time soon. I have found his writing to be very informative and ... Read More
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June 7, 2014

This Is How The Banks Created The Last Crisis Part II


  Yesterday, I walked into my local bank branch to get a reference letter needed for a travel visa (long story…) and I was immediately pounced on by tellers hungry for a commission. “Do you have a HELOC??” If you remember from Part I of this series, in December, I didn’t qualify for any sort of standard loan product since my irregular income meant that ... Read More
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June 2, 2014

Do You Remember Gadzooks??


Do you remember Gadzooks? Probably not (yet it had over 400 stores only a decade ago). In five years, I’ll be able to ask you the same question about Wet Seal (WTSLA), Aeropostale (ARO), Body Central (BODY), Cache (CACH) and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN). You won’t remember any of these because, despite having spent tens of millions a year in marketing, they have no brand ... Read More
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May 26, 2014

Kashagan


Ever since oil prices bottomed in 2002, people have wanted to believe that new supply would reduce prices. Over the past decade, they’ve talked about increased Iraqi and Libyan oil; there has been the promise of tar sands and Brazilian pre-salts and now they’re talking about shale oil. Yet, despite all of this talk, world oil production has plateaued for years. The simple truth ... Read More
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