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June 21, 2021
Published by Kuppy at June 21, 2021
Thursday afternoon, there was a press conference. Some dots were moved about on a piece of paper and JPOW threatened a few basis points of yield in a year or two. I didn’t bother to tune in because I had a hunch that nothing would happen. I was correct. Absolutely nothing happened at the meeting. If not for the price action in some securities
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May 5, 2021
Published by Kuppy at May 5, 2021
One of the great benefits of writing this blog is that I get hundreds of emails each month. These emails give me a unique perspective into what others see and an insight into how they run their books. With that in mind, I’d like to explore an odd concept in finance—investors’ political views getting in the way of them making money. As our world
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April 19, 2021
Published by Kuppy at April 19, 2021
At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, it was obvious that the equity markets would blast higher—as a result I strapped on as much exposure as I could stomach while remaining a responsible fiduciary. I was also early to recognize the massive influx of retail traders
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March 29, 2021
Published by Kuppy at March 29, 2021
For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect at scale. In fact, many of the Ponzi Sector companies seem to
Read MorePositions Mentioned: GBTC
January 25, 2021
Published by Kuppy at January 25, 2021
Let me throw this out there; the investing game is mind-numbingly easy. You buy good businesses for less than fair value. Sure, we can all argue about fair value. There are always surprises in the future trajectory of a business. This game has some wrinkles and drama, but at the most basic level, it’s easy. In fact, done correctly, it only involves a handful
Read MorePositions Mentioned: GME
August 10, 2020
Published by Kuppy at August 10, 2020
Once a quarter, I spend a Sunday reading through all the quarterly fund letters that have accumulated in my inbox. Of course, I’m selfishly seeking out stock ideas, but by reading over a hundred letters in a single sitting, I can better pick out trends in positioning and other nuances. Despite everyone claiming to be contrarian, the vast majority of fund managers know each
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August 5, 2020
Published by Kuppy at August 5, 2020
I have spent a lot of time on this site speaking about “Project Zimbabwe” as this period is so poorly understood and if you get it wrong, you’ll get annihilated. I have also written about how it’s getting strange out there as stocks no longer seem to have floors or ceilings on valuations. The moves are increasingly sudden and random as the active manager
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July 16, 2020
Published by Kuppy at July 16, 2020
Here’s the head-scratcher; -On one side, we have wave 2 of COVID-19, complete with new restrictions in multiple counties and states. Roughly 30 million people are out of work. Thousands of businesses are failing each week due to government COVID-19 mandates. Rent and mortgage payments are increasingly delinquent and all of this is before the fiscal stimulus tapers off. -On the other side, the
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July 13, 2020
Published by Kuppy at July 13, 2020
At this site, I’ve never shied away from unpopular truths—in fact, I think that shining light upon them is vital to logical thought and solid investment returns. With that out of the way, I’m going to dive into the klusterfukety global government response to COVID-19. Oddly, despite science being fact-based, each country charted its own path—showing that the pandemic itself is a political adventure
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JPOW Jests…