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October 5, 2022
Published by Kuppy at October 5, 2022
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The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash has to go somewhere and partly this is because their mandate does not extend into ensuring that global energy production expands. While Owners’ Equivalent Rent and wages have remained elevated, those are often seen Read More
Categories: Investment Strategy
Positions Mentioned:
June 29, 2022
Published by Kuppy at June 29, 2022
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One of the great mysteries of modern finance is the shape of the crude oil curve. For a summary, it’s in backwardation with the slope levelling off in the mid-$60s during the back half of this decade. Market participants clearly recognize that the spot market is tight, and they are bidding up the front of the curve into a steep backwardation. Why hasn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil
June 13, 2022
Published by Kuppy at June 13, 2022
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For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which may also be a function of how terrible most government functionaries are. As JPOW suddenly pretends that Volcker was his boyhood hero, I think it’s worth re-examining Volcker’s inflation fight. Of course, everyone knows Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 23, 2021
Published by Kuppy at November 23, 2021
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A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets. Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by going out that far in duration. Me: Haha. You’re Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil Futures
September 20, 2021
Published by Kuppy at September 20, 2021
Categories
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home Oh well, oh well, Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 13, 2020
Published by Kuppy at April 13, 2020
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Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
December 10, 2018
Published by Kuppy at December 10, 2018
Categories
One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
October 3, 2018
Published by Kuppy at October 3, 2018
Categories
Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it would never come back. As I noted in an update in July, shale isn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW ESV NE
The Fed Is Fuct (Part 5)…