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June 13, 2022

Volcker and Inflation…


For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which may also be a function of how terrible most government functionaries are. As JPOW suddenly pretends that Volcker was his boyhood hero, I think it’s worth re-examining Volcker’s inflation fight. Of course, everyone knows Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 23, 2021

Gas Stimmys…


A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets. Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by going out that far in duration. Me: Haha. You’re Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil Futures
September 20, 2021

When The Levee Breaks…


If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home Oh well, oh well, Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 13, 2020

Cookin’ With Gas…


Before I start, it’s worth putting things into perspective here. In the fall of 2018, I made a call on natural gas (mostly based on the same thesis expounded below) and got it spectacularly wrong. In fact, I lost enough money that I can now teach a doctorate level course in how to lose money in natural gas. Along the way, I learned a Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: SD
December 10, 2018

Taking Advantage Of The Energy Washout…


One of the great ironies during the decade of ZIRP/NIRP and QE, is that while it created plenty of asset price inflation, it created minimal consumer price inflation. I suspect this is because free money brought forward all sorts of unprofitable new supply, creating oversupply in most industries and crushing end-market pricing. Look at shipping for instance, excluding some brief spikes, you’ve had all Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW, ESV, NE, AR, GPOR, RRC, SD
October 3, 2018

It’s Tidewater Time!!


Back in January, I wrote about Tidewater (TDW – USA) which will be the largest global player in offshore service vessels (OSVs) once it completes its merger with Gulfmark Offshore (GLF – USA). At the time, the offshore oil sector was despised by equity investors who assumed that it would never come back. As I noted in an update in July, shale isn’t the Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: TDW ESV NE