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November 23, 2021
Published by Kuppy at November 23, 2021
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A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets. Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by going out that far in duration. Me: Haha. You’re Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Oil Futures
October 11, 2021
Published by Kuppy at October 11, 2021
Categories
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset classes seemed to offset each other, creating a smoothed-out return profile, was not lost on certain fund managers who created portfolios comprised of the two. Then, to better market this portfolio to the sorts of Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
September 20, 2021
Published by Kuppy at September 20, 2021
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If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to break When the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, Lord Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan It’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his home Oh well, oh well, Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 19, 2021
Published by Kuppy at April 19, 2021
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At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, it was obvious that the equity markets would blast higher—as a result I strapped on as much exposure as I could stomach while remaining a responsible fiduciary. I was also early to recognize the massive influx of retail traders Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
April 5, 2020
Published by Kuppy at April 5, 2020
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Roughly a month ago on the afternoon of Sunday, March 8th, Fed Chairman Powell had an emergency staff meeting. Powell: I want the nuttiest money printing plan ever. What action plans do we have that are prepared and ready to initiate? Admin: Well, we have this one named “GFC 2.0” Powell: Sounds tame and sedate. Won’t impress anyone. Admin: What about this one named Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: Gold
December 4, 2019
Published by Kuppy at December 4, 2019
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Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
Volcker and Inflation…