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March 29, 2021
Published by Kuppy at March 29, 2021
For the past few years, I have been critical of the Ponzi Sector. To me, these are businesses that sell a dollar for 80 cents and hope to make it up in volume. Just because Amazon (AMZN – USA) ran at a loss early on, doesn’t mean that all businesses will inflect at scale. In fact, many of the Ponzi Sector companies seem to
Read MorePositions Mentioned: GBTC
September 23, 2020
Published by Kuppy at September 23, 2020
I’ve been spending more and more of my time on Event-Driven (ED) trading strategies because I see the most opportunity there. I’ve already spoken about how SPACs often diverge from their own warrants—mainly because the Robinhood platform doesn’t allow its clients to play along in the warrants. Back in June, I played this fact very profitably in Nikola Motors (NKLA – USA) where the
Read MorePositions Mentioned: SHLL
November 21, 2019
Published by Kuppy at November 21, 2019
I know, I know, you’re sick of hearing about my vacation. Don’t worry, I’m not sharing vacation pics again. Rather, I want to talk about what I “discovered” in my weeks away from the screens. I believe that most serious investors are smart enough to buy cheap stocks—it’s the harder “other stuff” that separates those who excel in this industry from everyone else. I
Read MorePositions Mentioned: ASPS, STNG, SD
October 25, 2019
Published by Kuppy at October 25, 2019
Let me cut to the chase; I won a few along the way, but Elon Musk clearly won this most recent battle. Earlier this week, Musk stared at revenue comping negative, collapsing ASPs, and abysmal margins. He had his Draghi moment where he determined that he’d do “whatever it takes.” The alternative was to let investors blast Tesla (TSLA – USA) and face a
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TSLAQ
June 25, 2019
Published by Kuppy at June 25, 2019
Given the amount of time I’ve spent talking about Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) on this site, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that I materially changed my position over the past few days. Back in October of 2018, I felt that shorts were pressing their bets a bit too hard and noted that, “…All evidence seems to show that they’ve used every
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TSLAQ
May 21, 2019
Published by Kuppy at May 21, 2019
Back in December, when anything with a CUSIP was getting dumped by hedge funds facing liquidations, I repeatedly made the point (here, here, here) that it was the time to buy—particularly those assets that were at the epicenter of those hedge fund liquidations. Now, five months later, with most securities having recovered quite nicely, I want to remind you of how dark it was
Read MorePositions Mentioned: AR, GPOR, RRC, SD, STNG, TSLA
May 13, 2019
Published by Kuppy at May 13, 2019
I have been highly critical of the Profitless Prosperity Sector (a.k.a the Ponzi Sector). The sector consists of companies that are effectively Ponzi Schemes; in that they have accelerating losses but show blistering growth rates in order to attract new capital. This all worked fine when companies kept their free floats small enough to be manipulated like Tesla (TSLA – USA) or stayed private
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TSLA
March 1, 2019
Published by Kuppy at March 1, 2019
All Ponzi schemes follow a basic rule; as long as more money is coming in than out, the scheme can continue to inflate. When money stops flowing in, the scheme collapses—often quite rapidly. I believe that Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) is near the final stages of this arc. Excluding stock option exercises, cash is no longer inbound; meanwhile Tesla can no longer use financial
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TSLAQ
January 3, 2019
Published by Kuppy at January 3, 2019
Near the culmination of all great stock market bubbles, at least one of that cycle’s supposed luminaries suffers an epic collapse because of fraud. As a result, fresh capital is restricted from that sector when it is needed most, leading to further crisis and a winnowing out of the sector as competitors cannot raise additional capital. Remember; suckers are always willing to finance bad
Read MorePositions Mentioned: TSLA
Ponzis Go Boom!!!