Archives

Please click on a button below to jump straight to that category.
June 13, 2017

Ready, AIM, Sell??


I have spent much of my career looking for strong macro trends that will drive the performance of individual companies. However, over the past few years, I’ve had much more success buying overreactions to bad news, as the makeup of the market has changed and short-term thinking pervades investment decisions. Often, large fund holders sell without even understanding what the news means. Instead, they’re ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: AIM CN
May 31, 2017

Re-Reinventing The Death Spiral


On April 9, I wrote about how certain companies have death spiral financings in place and you could literally short them at will for almost risk free returns. Now, barely 7 weeks later, Dryships Inc (DRYS – USA) is already down by 90% since I wrote that piece. I’ve been shorting DRYS and a few others like it for quite some time and re-loading as ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: none
April 9, 2017

Reinventing The Death Spiral


About two decades ago, some unscrupulous hedge funds began tricking unsophisticated small cap companies into agreeing to “death spiral” converts (convertible debt). These were called “death spirals” as there was no set floor to the conversion price. Rather, they converted at some date in the future based on then market prices. Despite promising not to, these funds immediately began shorting shares with the goal ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
March 9, 2017

Hasta Luego Mexican REITs


Him: I think people are wrong. There are lots of instances where the Fed has raised rates and nothing bad has happened. Me: Name one time. Him: hmmm…. Oh crap!! Yea, we’re getting to that moment where people realize that rates may finally matter in a highly leveraged economy. My good friend Tal, made that point over a year ago.  I hope you took his warning and lightened up ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
February 26, 2017

NZME


As I scour the world for opportunity, I’m usually looking at macro themes or misplaced pessimism or some other reason for an asset’s current undervaluation with an eventual catalyst. Sometimes, in that process, I simply stumble upon something that is unusually cheap. Normally I choose not to write about these, because being cheap tends to be boring—especially if there’s no added story. After some ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
February 24, 2017

Star Bulk Redux (Time To Book Gains)


I like to invest in commodity sectors that are currently losing money but at an inflection point. The companies tend to be undergoing a winnowing process with lots of bankruptcy and dilution for existing shareholders. While this may sound terrifying for some investors, this process sets up the next bull market for that sector as it consolidates players, reduces capacity and often eliminates debt. ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
December 17, 2016

Mexico Is Having A Yuuuge Donald Trump Victory Sale


I am writing to you from Santiago de Queretaro, Mexico, where the whole country is having a yuuuuge Donald Trump victory sale. Mexico is one of my favorite countries to visit. It combines a laid back attitude, friendly people and an outstanding culinary tradition. It also helps that it’s currently one of the cheapest places on the planet—one of many reasons that I’ve spent ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
December 15, 2016

Oil Services Update


Back in August, I noted that oil looked to be making a right shoulder and that I was buying a basket of oil service companies as many of these companies, particularly in the offshore service, space traded at tiny fractions of NAV. Since then, most of my basket made new lows before rallying strongly in the past few weeks. The companies in my basket are now ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
December 1, 2016

Believe In America (Part II)


When the Central Bankers started printing money in 2009, I knew they wouldn’t be able to stop before they took things to an unimaginable extreme. When you’re in government and your policy isn’t working, you keep pushing harder—like your career is at stake if you fail. When China embarked on a massive infrastructure binge to re-ignite economic growth in 2008, it was obvious that ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned:
Scroll Up