December 20, 2019

No Thesis Creep For Me…


On Tuesday I wrote about thesis creep from the short sellers in Health Insurance Innovations (HIIQ – USA). At the time, I thought I was paying around five times earnings to buy a profitable short-term medical insurance (IFP) broker which was pivoting into the much more lucrative Medicare Advantage business. Furthermore, I felt that I knew why the shares were undervalued—namely an active and ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HIIQ
December 17, 2019

…But Kuppy, Isn’t That A Fraud…???


I’ve always wondered why certain false narratives take over in sectors or individual stocks. What makes it so that investors continue to repeat incorrect information when there is an obvious financial incentive to see things for what they are? I don’t really have an answer for you and for the better part of two decades, I’ve seen this as an opportunity—repeatedly going where the ... Read More
Categories: Investments
Positions Mentioned: HIIQ
December 8, 2019

Ask Kuppy 12/07/2019


Note: We’re doing some website formatting soon and going forward “Ask Kuppy” will no longer be under the traditional “Ask Kuppy” drop-down. Instead, it will be part of the normal blog-roll. New decade coming and it’s time for AiC to catch up with modern trends in blogging… Hi – I enjoyed your article on inflation, and a lot of your work for what it’s ... Read More
Categories: General
Positions Mentioned:
December 4, 2019

Inflation Is Coming…


Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned:
November 29, 2019

ESG = Excessive Share-price Growth


Two months ago, something rather monumental happened, which seems to have been lost to the news-cycle. In a world starved for yield, a company with trailing twelve month free cash flow of $527 million (cash flow from operations – maintenance cap-ex) and net debt of only $593 million could not re-finance debt due in 2022. Sure, the company’s end-markets are currently a little soft ... Read More
Categories: Comments On Events
Positions Mentioned: BTU
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